Energy, Competition, and Cooperation At The Caucasian Crossroads

BusinessEnergyEnergy, Competition, and Cooperation At The Caucasian CrossroadsByWesley Alexander Hill,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Wesley Alexander Hill (何伟龙) is an Energy and Geoeconomics expertFollow AuthorMay 30, 2026, 09:00am EDTUS Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan shake hands during a meeting at Yerevan's Zvartnots international airport on May 26, 2026. (Photo by KAREN MINASYAN / AFP via Getty Images)AFP via Getty ImagesWhen U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio visited Yerevan on May 26th, 2026, and signed a strategic cooperation agreement between the U.S. and Armenia, covering energy and more, the world took notice. Rubio’s visit followed up on U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s historic visit in February of this year, in which he and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan signed a civil nuclear energy cooperative development agreement.The South Caucasus rarely commands attention until war breaks out, pipelines are threatened, or a great power expands its footprint. The region has quietly become one of the most strategically competitive crossroads in Eurasia. Sitting between Russia, Iran, Turkey, and the Caspian Sea, the South Caucasus is central to energy transit, East-West and North-South trade, and Western access to Central Asia. Much of the world’s energy security, especially European efforts to diversify supply sources, relies on energy transiting the region. For the United States, due to its proximity to Russia and Iran ties it directly to long-term geopolitical competition and the future architecture of Eurasian connectivity.This reality helps explain why Armenia’s June 7 elections matter far beyond Yerevan. The vote will determine whether the South Caucasus continues to move toward diplomatic normalization, regional integration, and diversified economic partnerships, or reverts to the cycle of instability and dependency that long allowed Moscow to domina...