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Nisan 2026İstanbulBu gelişmelerle emtia piyasalarında karışık bir seyir izlenirken yatırımcıların odağı büyük merkez bankalarının para politikası kararlarına çevrildi. Hürmüz Boğazı'nda deniz taşımacılığına ilişkin riskler, petrol ve doğal gaz fiyatlamalarında jeopolitik risk priminin korunmasına neden olurken enerji fiyatlarından kaynaklı enflasyon endişeleri fiyatlamalar üzerinde belirleyici etkisini gösterdi. ABD-İran müzakerelerinin yeniden başlayıp başlamayacağına yönelik haber akışı piyasalarda temkinli seyri beraberinde getirdi. Haftanın son işlem gününde ABD tarafından gelen müzakerelerin tekrar başlatılmasına yönelik adımlar emtia piyasalarında risk iştahını kısmen destekledi. Beyaz Saray Sözcüsü Karoline Leavitt, Pakistan'ın başkenti İslamabad'da yapılması beklenen ABD-İran görüşmelerine ABD Başkanı Donald Trump'ın Özel Temsilcisi Steve Witkoff ile damadı Jared Kushner'in katılacağını, ABD Başkan Yardımcısı JD Vance'in ise toplantıya gitmeyeceğini açıkladı. Leavitt, Trump'ın ulusal güvenlik ekibiyle müzakere sürecini yakından izleyeceğini ve ortaya çıkacak tabloya göre her türlü aksiyonu alabileceğini ifade etti. Öte yandan, Orta Doğu'daki gerilimlerin gölgesinde gelecek hafta gözler ABD Merkez Bankasının (Fed) faiz kararına çevrildi. Para piyasalarındaki fiyatlamalarda Fed'in gelecek hafta politika faizini yüzde 3,50-3,75 aralığında sabit tutacağına kesin gözüyle bakılıyor. Orta Doğu'daki çatışmalar nedeniyle yükselen enerji maliyetlerinin enflasyonist baskıları artırabileceği endişesi, Fed'e yönelik bu yılki faiz indirimi beklentilerinin ötelenmesinde etkili oluyor. Jeopolitik gerilimlerin odakta olduğu süreçte Fed Başkanı Jerome Powell'ın sözle yönlendirmelerinin, Fed'in gelecek döneme ilişkin yol haritasına ışık tutması bekleniyor. Powell'ın enerji fiyatları, enflasyon görünümü ve para politikasına ilişkin vereceği mesajların başta altın olmak üzere değerli metaller, petrol ve baz metaller üzerinde etkili olabileceği öngörülüyor. Analistler, söz konusu faiz kararının alınacağı Federal Açık Piyasa Komitesi (FOMC) toplantısının, Powell'ın görev süresi dolmadan önce yapacağı son toplantı olarak da öne çıktığını kaydetti. Değerli metaller, haftayı Orta Doğu'daki gelişmelere ilişkin endişelerin, büyük merkez bankalarının para politikalarına yönelik beklentileri olumsuz etkileyebileceği öngörüsüyle negatif seyirle tamamladı. ABD-İran hattında müzakere sürecine ilişkin belirsizlikler ve Hürmüz Boğazı kaynaklı arz endişeleri petrol fiyatlarını desteklerken enerji maliyetlerindeki yüksek seyir küresel enflasyon beklentilerini artırdı. Bu durum, büyük merkez bankalarının faiz indirimlerinde daha temkinli hareket edebileceğine yönelik beklentileri güçlendirdi. Faiz indirim beklentilerinin zayıflamasıyla dolar endeksinde toparlanma ve ABD tahvil faizlerinde yükseliş görülürken faiz getirisi olmayan değerli metaller üzerinde baskı oluştu. Analistler, jeopolitik risklerin altın başta olmak üzere güvenli liman varlıklarını desteklediğini ancak güçlü dolar ve yüksek faiz beklentilerinin hafta genelinde fiyatlamalarda daha belirleyici olduğunu kaydetti. Bu gelişmelerle değerli metallerde ons bazında fiyatlar gümüşte yüzde 6,5, platinde yüzde 4,5, paladyumda yüzde 4,5 ve altında yüzde 2,6 geriledi. Baz metallerde ise bu haftada, Orta Doğu kaynaklı jeopolitik riskler ve enerji arzına ilişkin endişeler fiyatlamalar üzerinde etkili olurken yatırımcıların odağı Çin ekonomisine yönelik makroekonomik verilere çevrildi. Çin'de mart ayına ilişkin açıklanan makroekonomik veriler, sanayi tarafında büyümenin sürdüğüne ancak iç talep ve yatırımlarda ivme kaybının devam ettiğine işaret etti. Ülkede sanayi üretimi martta yıllık bazda yüzde 5,7 artarken perakende satışlardaki artış yüzde 1,7'ye geriledi. Sabit varlık yatırımları da yılın ilk çeyreğinde yüzde 1,7 artarak beklentilerin altında kaldı. Nikelde haftalık yükselişte arz endişeleri ve piyasa dengesine ilişkin beklentiler etkili oldu. Arz fazlasının azalabileceğine yönelik haber akışı ve paslanmaz çelik talebinde toparlanma beklentileri nikel fiyatlarını hafta boyunca destekledi. Alüminyumda ise enerji yoğun üretim yapısı ve Orta Doğu kaynaklı lojistik riskler fiyatların yükselmesinde etkili oldu. Hürmüz Boğazı'na ilişkin taşımacılık riskleri, enerji ve navlun maliyetleri üzerinden fiyatlamalara yansıdı. Bakırda ise Çin talebine ilişkin karışık sinyaller ve küresel büyüme görünümüne dair belirsizlikler satış baskısını artırdı. Hafta içinde risk iştahındaki toparlanma bakır fiyatlarını zaman zaman desteklese de haftalık bazda düşüş görüldü. Baz metallerde tezgah üstü piyasada libre bazında fiyatlar nikelde yüzde 6,3, çinkoda yüzde 1,3 ve alüminyumda yüzde 1,2 arttı. Bakırda yüzde 0,8 gerileme görülürken kurşunun fiyatı yatay seyretti. Enerji piyasasında tamamlanan haftada, Orta Doğu kaynaklı arz endişeleri ve Hürmüz Boğazı'na ilişkin haber akışı fiyatlamalarda belirleyici oldu. ABD-İran hattında müzakere sürecine yönelik çelişkili açıklamalar petrol arzında kesinti yaşanabileceği endişesini artırırken deniz taşımacılığına ilişkin riskler de Brent petrol fiyatlarını destekledi. Hürmüz Boğazı'nın küresel petrol ve sıvılaştırılmış doğal gaz (LNG) taşımacılığı açısından kritik öneme sahip olması, piyasalarda arz güvenliği hassasiyetini artırdı. Bölgeden geçen enerji sevkiyatına ilişkin risklerin yükselmesiyle petrol fiyatlarına jeopolitik risk primi eklendi. Haftanın bazı günlerinde müzakere sürecinin yeniden başlayabileceğine yönelik haber akışı fiyatlarda sınırlı gevşeme yaratsa da hafta genelinde arz kaygıları fiyatlardaki yüksek seyrin korunmasına neden oldu. ABD doğal gaz piyasasında ise petrol piyasasından farklı olarak iç dinamikler öne çıktı. Stokların beklentilerin üzerinde artması fiyatlardaki yukarı yönlü hareketi sınırlarken LNG ihracat talebine ilişkin beklentiler ve dönemsel hava koşullarına bağlı tüketim görünümü fiyatları destekledi. Bu gelişmelerle haftalık bazda Brent petrolün varil fiyatı yüzde 13,5, doğal gazın İngiliz termal birimi (MMBtu) cinsinden fiyatı ise yüzde 0,3 arttı. Tarım emtialarında ise Orta Doğu kaynaklı jeopolitik riskler, enerji fiyatlarındaki yükseliş, lojistik maliyetleri ve hava koşulları fiyatlamalar üzerinde belirleyici oldu. Hürmüz Boğazı'na ilişkin haber akışı petrol fiyatlarında dalgalanmayı artırırken gübre, navlun ve sigorta maliyetleri üzerinden tarım ürünlerinde maliyet baskısını öne çıkardı. Buğday fiyatlarındaki yükselişte, ABD'de kışlık buğday ekili alanlarda kuraklık riskinin sürmesi etkili oldu. ABD Tarım Bakanlığı verilerine göre, kışlık buğdayın yalnızca yüzde 30'unun "iyi/çok iyi" durumda bulunması, üretim kalitesine ilişkin endişeleri artırdı. Buna karşın Rusya'nın buğday ihracat vergisini sıfırlaması ve üretim tahminlerinin yukarı yönlü revize edilmesi, küresel arz tarafında fiyatları sınırlayan unsur oldu. Mısır fiyatları, güçlü ihracat talebi ve enerji piyasalarındaki yükselişten destek buldu. Bu gelişmelerle birlikte Chicago Ticaret Borsası'nda kile başına fiyatlar buğdayda yüzde 2,8 ve mısırda yüzde 1,3 artarken pirinçte yüzde 2,7 ve soya fasulyesinde yüzde 0,5 geriledi. ABD'de Intercontinental Exchange'te libre bazında fiyatlar şekerde yüzde 4,6 ve kahvede yüzde 3,7 artarken pamukta yüzde 0,3 düşüş görüldü. Kakaonun ton başına fiyatı da haftayı yüzde 4,8 yükselişle tamamladı. Haberi PaylaşAnadolu Ajansı web sitesinde, AA Haber Akış Sistemi (HAS) üzerinden abonelere sunulan haberler, özetlenerek yayımlanmaktadır.Abonelik için lütfen iletişime geçiniz.