Drujba boru hattının yeniden faaliyete geçmesi ve Avrupa enerji güvenliği

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Tanrısever 08 Mayıs 2026•Güncelleme: 08 Mayıs 2026İstanbulODTÜ Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Öğretim Üyesi Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever, Drujba petrol boru hattının onarım sürecinin arka planını ve bunun enerji güvenliği açısından olası yansımalarını AA Analiz için kaleme aldı. Rusya’nın Avrupa Birliği (AB) üyelerinden Macaristan ve Slovakya’ya petrol satışını gerçekleştirdiği Drujba petrol boru hattı, Ukrayna toprakları içinde bir bölümündeki hasar nedeniyle ocak ayından itibaren faaliyetine ara vermişti. Ukrayna bu hasarın Rusya’nın dron saldırılarından kaynaklandığını iddia etse de Rusya kendi menfaatlerine zarar verecek bir eylemde bulunmayacağı gerekçesiyle bu iddiayı kabul etmemişti. Bu bağlamda, Macaristan ve Slovakya da Ukrayna’dan boru hattını ivedikle tamir etmesini beklediler. Bu ülkelerden Slovakya, Ukrayna ve Brüksel üzerinde baskı kurmak için AB'nin Rusya’ya karşı hazırladığı 20. yaptırım paketini onaylamazken, Macaristan da Ukrayna’ya 2026-2027 dönemi için yapmayı kararlaştırdığı 90 milyar avroluk mali yardımı sorun çözülene kadar askıya almak üzere veto etmişti. Macaristan ve Slovakya’nın kendi ekonomilerine ciddi düzeyde zarar veren bu hasarın giderilmesi konusundaki tutumları çok net olduğundan; Brüksel ve Kiev’in Drujba petrol boru hattını onararak tekrar faaliyete sokmaktan başka politika alternatifi de kalmamıştı. Nihayet 21 Nisan’da Ukrayna Devlet Başkanı Volodimir Zelenskiy, Drujba boru hattının tamamen onarıldığını açıklamasıyla bu önemli sorun Macaristan ve Slovakya’nın istediği gibi çözülmüş oldu. Bu sayede Slovakya ve Macaristan Drujba hattı üzerinden yeniden petrol almaya başlarken; AB'nin Rusya’ya karşı hazırladığı 20. yaptırım paketinin ve Ukrayna’ya yapılacak 90 milyar avro kredi verilmesinin önündeki engeller de kalkmış oldu. Bu süreç, Macaristan ve Slovakya gibi bazı AB üyesi ülkelerin Rusya ile enerji ticaretinin tamamen kesilmesine karşı çıktığını gösterdi. Bu ülkelerin izledikleri politikanın nedeni kendilerinin Rusya yanlısı olmaları değildir; daha çok kendi ekonomilerinin daha pahalı olan diğer alternatif çözümlerin ekonomik yükünü taşıyabilecek durumda olmamalarıdır. Çünkü her iki ülke de 20. yaptırım paketini destekleyeceklerini belirterek Rusya yanlısı olmadıklarını ancak kendi ekonomik çıkarlarının arkasında durduklarını belirtmişlerdir. Bu gelişmeler AB'nin Rusya’ya yönelik uyguladığı ekonomik yaptırımları üye ülkelerin ekonomileri üzerindeki olası etkilerini de dikkate alarak daha esnek ve dikkatli şekilde uygulaması gerektiğini göstermektedir. Halihazırda Hürmüz Boğazı'ndaki güvenlik durumu nedeniyle enerji fiyatlarının küresel olarak yükselmesi AB üyelerinin Rusya’dan daha avantajlı alternatif enerji tedarikçileri bulmasını çok zorlaştırmaktadır. Her ne kadar AB ülkelerinin Ukrayna’ya askeri desteklerini daha da artırmaları beklense de Rusya’dan enerji ithatlarının 2030 itibarıyla tamamen sona erdirilmesi beklentisi çok gerçekçi görünmemektedir. Brüksel bu krizde Macaristan ve Slovakya’nın tercihleri yönünde hareket ederek Ukrayna’nın hiç istemediği şekilde Drujba boru hattını onarılarak faaliyete geçirmesini sağlayarak; Rusya’nın enerji tedarikine bir süre daha ihtiyaç duyacağını da zımnen kabul etmiştir. Bu durum gerek Brüksel’in gerekse Kiev’nin Rusya ile enerji ticaretini tamamen kesilmesi konusunda ellerinde çok güçlü pazarlık kartlarının olmadığını göstermiştir. Slovakya AB'nin Ukrayna ile ilişkileri konusunda daha çok ekonomik çıkarlarını esas alarak hareket etse de Viktor Orban liderliğindeki Macaristan’nın tutumunda ekonomik çıkarlarla birlikte Orban’nın siyasi vizyonunun da etkili olduğu bilinmekteydi. Macaristan'da 12 Nisan 2026 tarihinde yapılan parlamento seçimlerini Peter Magyar'ın kazanması ile bu siyasi vizyon da değişmiştir. Orban Rusya ve Ukrayna ile ilişkiler konusunda transatlantik ilişkilerde ortaya çıkan farklılaşmada ABD Başkanı Donald Trump’ın politikalarına daha yakın bir tutum benimsemesine karşıt olarak, Magyar'ın Brüksel ve Avrupa’daki başat aktörlerle birlikte hareket ederek Ukrayna’ya daha çok destek vereceği beklenmektedir. AB'nin 20. yaptırım paketinin içeriğine bakıldığında paketin Macaristan ve Slovakya gibi ülkelerin enerji ticaretine dönük önemli bir etkisi öngörülmemektedir. Bu nedenle, her iki ülkenin de Drujba boru hattının faaliyete geçmesinden hemen sonra pakete destek vermeleri şaşırtıcı olmamıştır. 20. yaptırım paketinin enerji sektörüne dönük en önemli unsuru özellikle Rusya’nın “gölge filo” olarak adlandırılan bazı tankerler yoluyla petrol ve sıvılaştırılmış doğal gaz (LNG) ticareti yapmasının engellenmesidir. Dolayısıyla, 20. yaptırım paketi Rusya’dan boru hattı ile petrol ve doğal gaz ticareti yapılması konusunda çok önemli bir yenilik içermediğinden Macaristan ve Slovakya gibi denize kıyısı olmayan ülkeler açısından etkisi az olacaktır. Bu ülkelerin sadece yaptırım kapsamında listeye alınan belirli banka ve finans kuruluşları kanallarıyla enerji ticareti yapmamaları gerekmektedir. Bazı AB ülkeleri, özellikle Macaristan ve Slovakya, yakın gelecekte Rusya ile enerji ticaretine devam etse de Drujba petrol boru hattının yeniden faaliyete geçmesi Rusya’nın Avrupa üzerindeki enerji etkisini önemli ölçüde artırmayacaktır. Çünkü, AB ülkeleri bir taraftan LNG kapasitelerini artırarak diğer taraftan da yenilenebilir enerji ve nükleer enerji kapasitelerini artırarak Rusya’ya enerji alanındaki bağımlılıklarını istikrarlı şekilde azaltmaktadırlar. Rusya ile enerji ticaretinin tamamen son erdirilmesi yakın gelecekte zor olsa da enerji ticaret hacminin göreceli olarak giderek azalması beklenmektedir. Denilebilir ki, Rusya’nın AB ülkelerinin enerji piyasaları ve enerji güvenlikleri üzerindeki etkisi kalıcı bir biçimde zayıflamıştır. Sonuç olarak, Drujba boru hattındaki gelişmeler, AB’nin Rusya’ya karşı enerji güvenliğini artırmaya yönelik adımlarının, üye ülkelerin ekonomik çıkarlarını gözetip iç uyumu koruyacak şekilde atılması halinde, Rusya’ya enerji bağımlılığını azaltmada daha etkili olabileceğini göstermiştir. [Prof. Dr. Oktay F. Tanrısever, ODTÜ Uluslararası İlişkiler Bölümü Öğretim Üyesidir.] * Makalelerdeki fikirler yazarına aittir ve Anadolu Ajansının editoryal politikasını yansıtmayabilir. Haberi PaylaşAnadolu Ajansı web sitesinde, AA Haber Akış Sistemi (HAS) üzerinden abonelere sunulan haberler, özetlenerek yayımlanmaktadır.Abonelik için lütfen iletişime geçiniz.