We are a week into August, and we are significantly closer to the end of the baseball season than the beginning. Overall, this has been a good year of betting, with July and August giving me back some of the units I lost to bad luck earlier in the year. That's part of the reason I enjoy betting every day — eventually it will balance out. As long as we are under control, we can be profitable. I'm looking for more profit as the Rays take on the Mariners.
The Tampa Bay Rays are one of the best teams in baseball, and they continue to show that a properly run team can do anything. Regardless of the "market," a team, when built correctly, can be productive and have sustained success. The Rays don't have a ton of big names, but they do have good pitchers and hitters that are under control and peaking at the same time. You don't always have to spend millions on guys to be great; you just have to have good scouting and some luck.
One of their best pitchers is taking the ball today as Drew Rasmussen heads to the hill. For the season, Rasmussen is 10-5 with a 2.91 ERA and a 0.93 WHIP. This is a fantastic season for him, as he currently is 16th in wins, 12th in ERA, third in WHIP, and 29th in strikeouts. He has always been a solid arm for the Rays, but gets less attention than some of the other ones who have been anchors of the Tampa rotation over the years. Mariners hitters haven't been great against Rasmussen, batting just .222 over 45 at-bats. His former teammate, Randy Arozarena, has the best history against him, going 3-for-7, but all of them were singles.
The Seattle Mariners shouldn't be this bad. I really don't know what is going on with this team. They have plenty of pitching. Their lineup has more than enough talent, but for whatever reason, they aren't performing the way they need to. Cal Raleigh has had a rough year, but that's one guy. There are many more that aren't playing quite as well as expected. They traded for Taylor Ward at the deadline to give them a bit of a boost. The AL West is the easiest division to win, so they should still have a chance, despite being four games under .500 at the moment.
I think the Mariners probably should be better because of this rotation. Their team is loaded with good arms. Logan Gilbert, tonight's starter, is just one of the talented players they have. He is 8-6 for the year with a 3.46 ERA, and a 0.99 WHIP. He also has 139 strikeouts for the season. To compare to Rasmussen, he is 23rd in ERA, 15th in strikeouts, and fifth in WHIP. He is worse at home than on the road, allowing 16 of his 17 homers in Seattle. Tampa has been very good against the Mariners righty, batting .296 against him.
There aren't a ton of guys that stand out against Gilbert, but like most things the Rays do, they are better as a team. I think this is a good opportunity to take Rasmussen and the Rays tonight. Gilbert has been very good, but he has allowed multiple runs in each of his past four starts. He also is more vulnerable at home this season than on the road. Give me the Rays tonight.
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