Drama Desk Awards Reshape Tony Awards Race

BusinessHollywood & EntertainmentDrama Desk Awards Reshape Tony Awards RaceByMarc Hershberg,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Marc Hershberg is a journalist covering the business of Broadway.Follow AuthorMay 22, 2026, 10:40pm EDTMay 22, 2026, 10:41pm EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.The cast of "Schmigadoon!" holding hands at the Nederlander Theatre on April 20, 2026. (Photo by Valerie Terranova/WireImage)WireImageWhile Tony Awards voters stay silent about their ballots, the Drama Desk Awards voters are loud enough to move the market.After Schmigadoon! won the Drama Desk Award for Outstanding Musical last weekend, its odds of winning the Tony Award for Best Musical skyrocketed on the popular prediction market Kalshi, rising from 67.6 percent to a peak of 81 percent. Meanwhile, the odds for Two Strangers (Carry a Cake Across New York) fell from 19 percent to a low of nine percent.The Drama Desk Awards have long foreshadowed triumphs at the Tony Awards.In the past 25 years, 60 percent of the shows given the Drama Desk Award for Outstanding Musical also went on to win the Tony Award for Best Musical. Foretelling a twist at the Tony Awards in 2014, Drama Desk Awards voters chose A Gentleman’s Guide to Love and Murder over the favored Beautiful: The Carole King Musical.The correlations in the other show categories are even stronger.Approximately 73.9 percent of the shows that won the Drama Desk Award for Outstanding Revival of a Play over the past 25 years also won the Tony Award for Best Revival of a Play. After Death of a Salesman took home the Drama Desk Award, its odds of winning the Tony Award on Kalshi soared from 78 percent to a peak of 98 percent.In addition, 76 percent of the new plays crowned at the Drama Desk Awards since 2000 later won at the Tony Awards. However, the current frontrunner on Kalshi, Liberation,...