DOJ probing trades in oil futures and prediction markets just ahead of major Iran war news

Iran warJustice Dept. investigating trades in oil futures and prediction markets ahead of major Iran war newsAt least four oil trades resulted in a combined total of more than $2.6 billion for the traders, who correctly predicted that the price of oil would drop.Listen to this article with a free account00:0000:00Add NBC News to GoogleSource: DOJ investigating suspicious oil trades timed around Iran war01:55Get more newsLiveonShareAdd NBC News to GoogleMay 7, 2026, 5:56 PM EDTBy Michael Kosnar and Steve KopackThe Justice Department and the nation’s top commodity market regulator are investigating a series of oil market trades that came just ahead of major policy announcements from President Donald Trump and Iranian officials, according to a source familiar with the probe.Subscribe to read this story ad-free Get unlimited access to ad-free articles and exclusive content.The statements and social media posts all pertained to the ongoing U.S.-Israeli war with Iran.ABC News first reported the investigation earlier Thursday, although the oil trades themselves were first reported by Reuters in mid-April.In addition to examining the oil markets for potential insider trading, the source told NBC News that investigators are also pursuing a separate probe into suspicious activity on prediction market platforms, also related to Iran war developments.The source warned that the investigations are in their early stages and that there is no conclusive evidence yet of criminal wrongdoing.Some of the oil trades in question happened before Trump announced he would delay attacks on Iran’s power grids, before talks of a ceasefire and ahead of key developments in the Strait of Hormuz.Both the Justice Department and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission are looking into at least four trades where the traders made a total of more than $2.6 billion betting that oil prices would drop right before they did, a person familiar with the matter told NBC News.The trades are said to have been p...