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Doğan, Doğu Asya'da son dönemde değişen güvenlik mimarisini ve bu dönüşümün geleceğe yönelik olası etkilerini AA Analiz için kaleme aldı. Küresel sistemin çoklu kriz dönemlerinde tarihin en belirleyici kırılmaları çoğu zaman en görünür çatışma alanlarında değil, daha sessiz fakat kalıcı sonuçlar üreten coğrafyalarda şekillenir. Orta Doğu'daki çatışmaların yeniden alevlendiği, transatlantik ittifakının iç gerilimlerini yönetmeye çalıştığı ve küresel ticaret düzeninin yeniden tanımlandığı bu dönemde Doğu Asya, sistemsel dönüşümün en yoğun yaşandığı jeopolitik bir laboratuvar haline gelmiştir. Birbirinden bağımsız gibi görünen fakat aynı güvenlik mimarisinin farklı katmanlarını temsil eden son gelişmeler, bölgedeki stratejik rekabetin artık dönemsel bir gerilim hattı değil, yeni bir normalin işareti olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Bu dönüşümün en net örneklerinden biri, Tayvan Cumhurbaşkanı Lai Ching-te'nin Esvatini ziyaretinin son anda iptal edilmesidir. Resmi programa göre Lai'nin, Afrika'da Tayvan'ı diplomatik olarak tanıyan az sayıdaki ülkeden biri olan Esvatini'ye gitmesi ve bu ziyaret kapsamında Seyşeller, Mauritius ile Madagaskar hava sahalarını transit geçiş için kullanması öngörülüyordu. Ancak söz konusu üç ülkenin hava sahalarını tek taraflı biçimde kapatmasıyla ziyaret tamamen iptal edildi ve ilk kez bir Tayvan Cumhurbaşkanı yalnızca transit geçiş engeli nedeniyle tüm yurt dışı programını iptal etmek zorunda kaldı. Transit geçiş meselesi Tayvan liderleri için yeni bir başlık değildir. Tsai Ing-wen döneminde de ABD transit durakları egemenlik tartışmasının doğrudan parçası haline gelmişti. 2023'te California'da McCarthy ile gerçekleştirilen görüşmenin ardından Çin'in geniş çaplı askeri tatbikatlar başlatması, transit geçişlerin artık salt lojistik bir mesele olmadığını açıkça ortaya koymuştu. Lai'nin ziyaret iptali bu sürecin daha ileri bir aşamasına işaret etmektedir. Artık yalnızca transit duraklar değil, transitin kendisi jeopolitik rekabetin konusu haline gelmektedir. Buradaki temel mesele bir diplomatik ziyaretin engellenmesinin ötesindedir. Tayvan meselesi coğrafi hareketlilik üzerinden yeniden tanımlanan bir egemenlik tartışmasına dönüşmektedir. Pekin, Kovid-19 salgını döneminde Tayvan'ın BioNTech aşılarına erişimi ve Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (WHO) temsilinden uluslararası platformlardaki görünürlüğüne kadar pek çok alanda benzer hassasiyetler sergilemiş, tek Çin politikası çerçevesinde diplomatik alanı sıkı biçimde kontrol altında tutmuştur. Bugün ise bu yaklaşım sembolik diplomatik tanımanın ötesine geçerek operasyonel coğrafyanın denetimine uzanmaktadır. Hava sahası bu noktada yalnızca teknik bir egemenlik alanı değil, siyasi pozisyonların fiili yansıma alanı haline gelmiştir. Madagaskar'ın kararını "tek Çin politikasına tam saygı ve egemenlik hakkı çerçevesinde" aldığını açıklaması da bu sürecin nasıl meşru ve steril bir diplomatik dil içine yerleştirildiğini göstermektedir. Tayvan örneğinde görülen kuşatma mantığı, bölgenin tamamında işleyen daha geniş bir stratejik dönüşümün parçasıdır. Mesele yalnızca bir aktörün hareket alanının daraltılması değil, bölgesel güçlerin tehdit algılarını ve kurumsal yanıtlarını yeniden tanımlamalarıdır. Bu bağlamda 21 Nisan 2026 günü, Japonya açısından savaş sonrası savunma kimliğinin yeniden tanımlandığı kritik bir eşik olarak kayda geçmiştir. Tokyo'nun onlarca yıldır sürdürdüğü silah ihracatı kısıtlamalarını kaldırarak savaş gemisi, füze ve ileri muharebe sistemlerinin dış satışına izin vermesi, yalnızca teknik bir politika revizyonu değil, stratejik zihniyet dönüşümünün açık ilanıdır. 2022 Ulusal Güvenlik Stratejisi'nde Çin'in "en büyük stratejik meydan okuma" olarak tanımlanması ve karşı saldırı kapasitesinin öngörülmesi bu sürecin teorik zeminini zaten oluşturmuştu. Savunma harcamalarını hedeften iki yıl önce gayri safi yurt içi hasılasının (GSYİH) yüzde 2'sine taşıyan Japonya artık Pekin açısından temkinli bir komşu değil, aktif bir stratejik aktördür. Bu nedenle, Tokyo'nun askeri stratejileri yalnızca savunma planlamasının değil, aynı zamanda tarihsel meşruiyet iddiasının da bir parçasıdır. Tablonun belki de en yapısal boyutu, Güney Çin Denizi'nde süregelen bir sürecin İran gerilimiyle açılan stratejik fırsat penceresinde yeni bir ivme kazanmasıdır. ABD'nin Pasifik'teki kritik deniz kuvvetlerini Orta Doğu'ya ya yeniden konuşlandırması neticesinde bölgede açılan alan, Çin'in Güney Çin Denizi'ndeki ada inşa faaliyetlerini hızlandırması için bir fırsat penceresi yaratmıştır. Yapay ada inşası ve deniz milisi faaliyetleri, gri bölge literatüründe uzun süredir en etkin hibrit tehdit taktikleri olarak tanımlanmaktadır. Zira, her ikisi de uluslararası hukukun müdahale eşiğinin altında kalarak fiili kontrol tesis edilmesini sağlamaktadır. Uydu görüntüleri ve Stratejik ve Uluslararası Çalışmalar Merkezi'nin (CSIS) raporlarına göre Pekin, yalnızca Aralık 2025 ile Mart 2026 arasındaki dönemde Antelope Reef'te 9 bin fitlik bir askeri pist kapasitesine ulaşabilecek ölçekte arazi kazanmıştır. Ancak bu taktiklerin yalnızca Çin tarafından uygulanmadığını bilmek önemlidir. Nitekim Vietnam da süreç içerisinde kontrol ettiği 21 yapı boyunca dolgu çalışmalarını hızlandırmış ve bu süreç bölgede rekabetçi bir ada inşası dinamiğini tetiklemiştir. Bu vakada uluslararası hukukun 2016 tahkim kararına rağmen sahada uygulanamaz olduğunu gören tüm taraflar, yanıtı benzer taktikleri uygulamakta bulmuştur. Bu durumun neticesinde ise bir taraftan Güney Çin Denizi savaş eşiğinin altındaki taktiklerin bir laboratuvarı haline gelirken burada Pekin'in yarattığı emsal, kopyala-yapıştır mantığıyla geniş bir coğrafyaya yayılmaktadır. Bu ise kural tabanlı düzenin fiilen çöktüğü değil, giderek daha az bağlayıcı hale geldiğinin somut göstergesidir. Son haftalarda yaşanan gelişmeler birlikte okunduğunda ortaya çıkan tablo, Asya-Pasifik'te güvenlik mimarisinin parametrelerinin yeniden yazıldığı bir dönemin anatomisini sunmaktadır. Hava sahaları diplomatik silaha dönüşmekte, altmış yıllık savunma doktrinleri tek bir kabine kararıyla tarihe karışmakta, mercan resifleri egemenlik mücadelelerinin sahnesine dönmektedir. Mesele artık yalnızca büyük güçlerin yükselişi değil, uluslararası sistemin normatif iddialar ile stratejik fırsatçılık arasındaki gerilimde hangi yöne evrildiğidir. Görünen o ki bu dengede giderek ikinci taraf ağır basmaktadır. Doğu Asya'da yaşananlar yalnızca bölgesel bir güvenlik meselesi değil, 21. yüzyıl uluslararası düzeninin nasıl işleyeceğine dair erken uyarı sinyalleridir. [Diren Doğan, Alanya Alaaddin Keykubat Üniversitesi Öğretim Üyesidir.] *Makalelerdeki fikirler yazarına aittir ve Anadolu Ajansının editoryal politikasını yansıtmayabilir. Haberi PaylaşAnadolu Ajansı web sitesinde, AA Haber Akış Sistemi (HAS) üzerinden abonelere sunulan haberler, özetlenerek yayımlanmaktadır.Abonelik için lütfen iletişime geçiniz.