Diamondbacks vs Reds betting preview: Why one pitcher makes Cincinnati the play through five innings

We are starting to head toward the dog days of summer, and that means we will be locking in for baseball. Baseball is the sport that typically builds my bankroll for the football seasons, and I intend to do that once again here. I'm looking to get some cash here as the Arizona Diamondbacks take on the Reds.

The Diamondbacks were expected to have a down year, but I guess no one told them that. It isn't like they are world-beaters. They are just 35-35 for the season, and are likely to only compete for a wild card berth if anything. They are one of my teams to watch at the trade deadline because they have a lot of talent, but clearly not enough to compete with the Dodgers (who does?). They also already have rumors about major players, like Ketel Marte, being an issue which hurts his value, but also allows the public to be more accepting of a trade.

They probably will once again shop today's starter, Zac Gallen. There were no takers last year, and even the free-agent market was pretty thin for Gallen. His numbers this year indicate that it probably won't be a very competitive market for his services either. He is 3-5 with a 5.43 ERA and a 1.55 WHIP. He has been brutal on the road this season with an ERA north of seven. He has allowed at least four earned runs in six of his last eight outings. Cincinnati Reds hitters, however, are just 6-for-45 against him. 

The Reds started the season hot, but have since cooled off. This is a young-and-upcoming team, so the result is not all that surprising. I think they are still a couple of years away from being truly competitive with their club. However, they did make the playoffs last season. If they can get some of their pitching to step up, they should have a solid chance this year. They are 33-36, so another team that could choose just about any option around the trade deadline. 

Today they look to grab the series as they send out Andrew Abbott. He hasn't had a fantastic season, but he does have decent stuff. He is 4-4 with a 4.10 ERA and a 1.41 WHIP. He has been worse at home than he has on the road, throwing to a 5.15 ERA. However, unlike Gallen who has struggled lately, Abbott has looked great. He has three straight quality starts and has allowed three or fewer earned runs in eight straight outings. Diamondback hitters have done well against him, going 15-for-43 over their careers.

The books seem to think this should be a toss-up based on the way they have done the moneyline. I can understand it to a certain extent. The better offense is almost certainly the Diamondbacks, but the better pitcher is on the Reds side. I tend to think there is better value of betting on the pitcher than betting on an offense.

Gallen has been awful, so even with a better offense, the opposing offense gets a boost as well. Maybe the simple solution is to take the over and move on. I don't hate the look if you choose to take it, but I'm going to shorten the game and focus on the time that Gallen and Abbott should still be around. Give me the Reds through five innings.