Democratic odds jump in Maine as party leaders scramble to choose Graham Platner replacement as July deadline approaches

By VICTORIA CHURCHILL, US POLITICAL REPORTER Published: 15:43, 7 July 2026 | Updated: 15:44, 7 July 2026 Democratic odds to hold the US Senate seat in Maine have risen significantly in the last day, thanks to the latest bombshell sexual misconduct allegations against the party's current nominee in the race, Graham Platner. That's because he could drop out of the race, and be replaced by the party with a more palatable candidate to take on GOP incumbent Susan Collins. On July 2nd, Kalshi traders actually gave incumbent Susan Collins the advantage in the match-up against Platner, with 50 percent backing her and 49.7 percent favoring the challenger. After he was hit with the most damaging allegations of sexual assault to date -  including claims of unwanted penetration and ejaculation - on Monday afternoon and started losing endorsements from progressive leaders across the country, Democratic odds to hold the seat rose significantly amid speculation that Platner would drop from the race. As of 7am on Tuesday, July 7th, Democrats had a 59 percent chance of beating Collins, per Kalshi's betting odds. Platner and the Maine Democratic Party face two quickly approaching deadlines. If he plans to leave the race, he must do so by next Monday, July 13th. Then the party must pick his replacement by Monday, July 27th. Allies of Platner have indicated that he will only leave the race if he finds a replacement that shares his progressive vision for the country. Per Punchbowl News, Maine Democrats are increasingly discussing potential replacements for Graham Platner, with the focus largely on candidates who were unsuccessful in 2026 races.  Democratic US Senate nominee Graham Platner speaks at his Primary Election event on June 9, 2026 in Blue Hill, Maine One of Platner's ex partners, Jenny Racicot, spoke to CNN about her allegations On July 2nd, Kalshi traders actually gave incumbent Susan Collins the advantage in the match-up against Platner, with 50.03 percent backing her and 49.7 percent favoring the challenger As of 7am on Tuesday, July 7th, Democrats have a 59.2 percent chance of beating Collins, per Kalshi's betting odds Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson, epidemiologist Nirav Shah, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows, and former congressional candidate Jordan Wood are among those being floated by party insiders.  Jackson publicly backed allegations against Platner and called on him to exit the race, saying, 'There is no place in our politics for sexual violence. Not in our party, not in any party. Graham Platner must withdraw from this race today.'  However, rumors have swirled about 'troubling information' regarding Jackson's behavior. Retiring Congressman Jared Golden is a preferred option for many Democrats, but the chances of him being willing to stay in DC are slim.  Governor Janet Mills, meanwhile, has both name ID and the ability to fundraise, but lost badly to Platner in the primary for the US Senate seat after suspending her campaign but remaining on the ballot, so she is considered highly unlikely to run.  Platner, the current nominee, was accused by an ex-girlfriend of forcing himself on her after barging into her home 'blackout drunk,' in a Politico story that was published on Monday afternoon. Platner denied his ex Jenny Racicot's allegation on Monday but admitted he was considering dropping out after the Politico report. Election signs for Democratic Senate candidate Graham Platner stand outside a home in rural Maine near the town of Dedham on June 3, 2026 Graham Platner and his wife Amy Gertner Racicot, 41, told the outlet she had an on-and-off relationship with Platner for more than two years before the night when he showed up to her rural Maine home uninvited in 2021. She said that they exchanged messages that night and told him not to come over, but later that evening, she heard him letting himself into her unlocked house. Platner came upstairs to where she was sitting on the couch and appeared to be 'blackout drunk' when he ignored her protests and started 'grabbing my pelvis and being really forceful of me.' 'I had been telling him these words, like: 'No, don't,'' she told Politico. 'And, the look on his face and realizing what was happening, I just realized that, like, I am in a situation where there's no consent here.' Racicot claimed that she tried to get away from Platner by going to her bedroom, but he followed her inside and had sex with her against her will. She said he ejaculated inside her despite her asking him not to because she was not on birth control. Platner had previously been accused of improper behavior by two other former partners.  The married Iraq war veteran faced an immediate wave of left wing backlash, including from top Democratic lawmakers who pulled their support. Representative Ro Khanna of California posted on X: 'I’ve been very clear that sexual assault or violence against women is a red line. These allegations are very serious and credible. Graham Platner should drop out from the race. I am withdrawing my endorsement.' Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona posted: 'The allegations against Graham Platner are troubling and deeply serious. I am rescinding my endorsement.' Left-wing streamer Hasan Piker, who is highly influential among Gen Z, said during his live stream: 'That is curtains. That is the trifecta. Okay, that is the trifecta of a reliable allegation. It's holy shit ... I believe this, this accusation. I believe this allegation.' The national Democratic campaign arm also noted on Monday that if Platner remained on the ballot, they would not invest money into the race. Collins, the only Republican in the race, holds an independent streak that makes her both loved and feared. She also represents an endangered species: a Republican who represents a state traditionally carried by the Democratic presidential nominee.