President Donald Trump isn't on the ballot, but his clout over the GOP and the immense power of his endorsements in Republican primaries are on the line Tuesday in statewide runoff elections in South Carolina and Oklahoma.
Trump is backing Sen. Darline Graham in the Republican Senate nomination runoff in South Carolina, in the race to succeed her late brother, GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham, who unexpectedly died this summer at age 71.
And the president is supporting former state budget secretary and former state Sen. Mike Mazzei for the Republican gubernatorial nomination in Oklahoma, where GOP Gov. Kevin Stitt is term-limited.
Both Trump-backed candidates are facing off in competitive contests on that day that also includes a special election runoff in Georgia to fill a congressional seat left vacant following Democratic Rep. David Scott’s death in April. The two candidates are Democrats, which means the winner will further reduce an already extremely fragile Republican majority in the House.
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In South Carolina, Darline Graham is facing off with conservative Rep. Ralph Norman, with the winner replacing the late senator as the Republican Senate nominee on the midterm ballot in reliably red South Carolina.
Graham and Norman finished first and second in a special Senate primary two weeks ago, but with neither candidate landing a majority of the vote, they advanced to a runoff from a field that also included Rep. Russell Fry and former governor and former Rep. Mark Sanford.
"We need every South Carolina patriot to go to the polls and vote for Darline Graham," Trump urged on Friday as he headlined a rally for Graham in Myrtle Beach. "What I really want you to do is pretend, please, that I'm on the ballot. Just come and vote. It's so important."
Graham is backed by term-limited South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster, who last month appointed her to fill the rest of her late brother's current term in the Senate. She also has the backing of Fry, a top Trump ally in the House, as well as the support of Sen. Tim Scott, South Carolina's other senator and chair of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.
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Norman, who unsuccessfully campaigned earlier this year for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in the race to succeed McMaster, has been showcasing his support for the president in his Senate campaign and questioning Trump's backing of Darline Graham.
He was backed last week by Sanford, who briefly launched a long-shot and unsuccessful 2020 presidential challenge against Trump. Sanford, who is known as a fiscally conservative budget hawk, pointed to the nation's debt as a key motivator behind his decision to launch a Senate campaign, and later for backing Norman.
The Trump endorsement hasn't proven to be a sure bet this cycle in South Carolina.
Trump backed Lt. Gov. Pamela Evette for the GOP gubernatorial nomination — in the race to succeed the term-limited McMaster — ahead of the state's early June primary.
Evette was the top vote-getter in the primary but lost the ensuing runoff election against South Carolina Attorney General Alan Wilson in a landslide. And Trump, ever hungry for a victory, endorsed Wilson in addition to Evette days before the runoff.
"It’s becoming a referendum on Trump," a South Carolina-based Republican consultant told Fox News Digital.
The strategist, who asked for anonymity to speak more freely, argued Trump "came to South Carolina to solidify his endorsement because he has to show a win here."
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Norman, as he runs for the Senate, is also backed by former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley, who served as ambassador to the United Nations during Trump's first term in the White House. Norman was the only member of South Carolina's congressional delegation, and the first member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, to endorse Haley over Trump in the 2024 Republican presidential primaries.
"Trump still has a nasty taste in his mouth for Nikki Haley," the GOP strategist argued.
In Oklahoma, the Trump-backed Mazzei finished slightly behind state Attorney General Gentner Drummond in the initial June GOP primary, with a crowded field keeping either from winning the nomination outright. The winner of Tuesday's GOP runoff will be considered the clear general election favorite in the Republican-dominated state.
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Trump has boasted a powerful endorsement scorecard in GOP primaries so far this election cycle.
"My Endorsements are stronger than ever," the president touted this past weekend in a social media post.
But five of his gubernatorial picks in Republican primaries have fallen short. Besides South Carolina's Evette, that list includes Georgia Lt. Gov. Burt Jones and Rep. Randy Feenstra of Iowa, who lost nominating contests this spring. And two weeks ago, Wyoming Superintendent of Public Instruction Megan Degenfelder and Minnesota businessman and "My Pillow" founder and former CEO Mike Lindell fell short.
"There’s no question that an endorsement from President Trump provides a tremendous boost in a Republican primary. But it doesn’t necessarily mean the candidate’s going to win," veteran GOP strategist and communicator Ryan Williams told Fox News Digital.
Williams said that "the president still has a firm grip on the party, even in places where a candidate he backed loses a nomination." But he noted that "if there are underlying issues with a candidacy, those can pose problems that even an endorsement can’t overcome."
Meanwhile, in Georgia, two Democrats are vying to serve the remaining months through the end of the year of Scott's term in the House.
The finalists are former Gwinnett County School Board Chair Everton Blair and Marcye Scott, the late congressman's daughter.
