Crypto-based prediction markets popular but risky for Hong Kong users: experts

AdvertisementHong Kong societyHong KongSocietyCrypto-based prediction markets popular but risky for Hong Kong users: expertsObservers warn of unregulated world of alternative gaming, following government’s move to halt plans for basketball betting in the city 3-MIN READ3-MIN ListenOscar LiuPublished: 3:21pm, 14 Apr 2026Prediction markets are surging in popularity as cryptocurrency-based gambling platforms offering diverse gameplay and attractive odds, observers have said, warning against the risks of reneged payouts after the Hong Kong government halted plans for legalised basketball betting. They also warned on Tuesday that Hong Kong residents who participate in these platforms, which use cryptocurrency for transactions, could be breaking gambling laws while falling into unregulated contract disputes with the events they bet on. On Monday, authorities announced the suspension of plans for legalised basketball betting originally set to be launched in September, citing the rapid rise of prediction markets as a significant risk in attracting public attention to such platforms and indirectly fuelling the illicit market. AdvertisementA prediction market treats future events like stocks and is based on crowdsourced trading. Instead of trading equity shares in a company, people buy and sell “shares” with cryptocurrencies such as USDT or ether, based on the outcome of a specific “yes-or-no event”, such as an election result or a sports competition. Vera Yuen Wing-han, a political economy lecturer at the University of Hong Kong, said bettors gravitated towards more attractive odds and a diversity of events to gamble on, ranging from current affairs to the weather on a given day. AdvertisementA check of the New York-based platform Polymarket, which has an estimated valuation of US$14.21 billion, revealed several trending bets, including wagers on whether the US and Iran would reach a permanent peace agreement by a specific date, with US$4 million at stake and live betting on five-minute price fluctuations of bitcoin. AdvertisementSelect VoiceSelect Speed0.8x0.9x1.0x1.1x1.2x1.5x1.75x00:0000:001.00x