Could Putin really fire long-range drones into Nato territory? Experts warn dictator 'clearly' has the means - but alliance response would overwhelm Russian military

By IMOGEN GARFINKEL - SENIOR FOREIGN NEWS REPORTER Published: 14:43, 17 August 2026 | Updated: 14:46, 17 August 2026 As Vladimir Putin continues to wage his war against Ukraine, the dictator is making it abundantly clear that Russia has the capability to breach European borders with its long-range suicide drones. NATO is increasingly seeing signs of Moscow conducting probing attacks to test the alliance's resolve, including Russian cruise missiles that have landed in Poland and drones flown into Romania.  In retaliation for Europe's support for Ukraine, Putin is also ramping up his shadow war against the continent, using hybrid techniques such as cyberattacks on critical infrastructure, espionage and the sabotage of undersea communication cables. Military experts have warned that Russia 'absolutely' has the ability to launch drones deep into European nations, with the United Kingdom, Italy, and most of France potentially all within striking distance.  Nevertheless, they caveat that the Kremlin chief is playing a state-level version of Maskirovka, or 'Call My Bluff', designed to spread fear among his Western enemies and bolster support among the disillusioned Russian population. Despite Moscow's capability to attack Europe, Putin is unlikely to risk the potential for a collective response under NATO's Article 5, they said, which would overwhelm the Russian military. While analysts widely believe that Putin wouldn't dare stage a direct attack on Europe, the Kremlin has been steadily developing a series of secret bases – capable of firing high-powered suicide drones across the continent.  Some of the sites are already being used to obliterate Ukrainian infrastructure, though Moscow could also deploy its rapidly-developing technology to attack Europe in the event of war. As Vladimir Putin continues to wage his war against Ukraine , the dictator is making it abundantly clear that Russia has the capability to breach European borders with its long-range suicide drones  Your browser does not support iframes. Russia’s Geran-2 drones, based on the Iranian Shahed, have a range between 1,118 and 1,553 miles, according to Ukrainian intelligence. Sites like Cape Chauda in occupied Crimea or near Bryansk are already in use, while another strategic location would be near St. Petersburg, which offers easy logistics and a favourable range. From these locations, a Geran-2 with a 1,118-mile range could reach all of Scandinavia, the Netherlands, most of Germany, and southern Italy.  Extending that range to 1,553 miles would put all of the United Kingdom, Italy, and most of France within striking distance.  'They clearly have the capability to do that, with the amount of drones they're producing and with these new drone airfields that bring much of NATO - the Baltics and Poland - well into range,' British former Army officer Hamish de Bretton-Gordon told the Daily Mail. Countries in the Western alliance believe Putin is already conducting probing attacks to test and fracture the 32-member bloc.  There have been multiple instances over the last few years of Russia encroaching on the alliance's territory. In May, a drone carrying explosives struck an apartment building in Romania as Russian forces attacked a nearby Ukrainian port, injuring two people. Last September, NATO fighter jets shot down multiple Russian drones that had violated Polish airspace during an attack on Ukraine.  In recent weeks, the US confirmed that an explosive-laden drone discovered at Leipzig airport in Germany belonged to a Russian intelligence service. And on Friday, NATO jets shot down a foreign drone over Latvia after it entered the Baltic state's airspace. Two Italian Eurofighters were scrambled and one destroyed the unmanned aircraft, while two Turkish F-16s were also deployed under NATO command.  Fighter jets were scrambled over 250 per cent more in July compared with a year ago, as Russia continues to probe the West's defences.  The sharp increase in the monthly figure for July compared with the same month in 2025 highlights Putin's increasingly aggressive stance.  'The numbers do not lie,' said a post by NATO's Allied Joint Force Command Brunssum.  Police forensic technicians prepare to deploy an explosive-disposal robot near a Ukrainian aircraft at Leipzig-Halle Airport, Germany, August 5 A bomb disposal robot deployed by police at German airport Leipzig-Halle after a drone was found near a Ukrainian plane Russia has been busy building new launch pads for its most advanced long-range suicide drones at 10 bases, according to the Telegraph. The Kremlin has also constructed at least 59 new launch rails – mechanical guide tracks used in the takeoff of fixed-wing drones in lieu of a traditional runway – along Russia’s border with Belarus and Ukraine. The latest Russian drone models, named Geran-4 and Geran-5, can fly fast enough to evade air defence systems while carrying a 90kg payload, according to Ukrainian government documents leaked online. The new bases have been supplied by multiple munition factories scattered around the country, including the Alabuga special economic zone – a Russian drone-building campus producing 6,000 units a year. But just because Moscow has the capability to launch drones into NATO territory, this doesn't mean Putin will actually give the order. Philip Ingram, a former British Army colonel, told the Daily Mail: 'Putin is playing with us - he is playing a game of Maskirovka (Russian: маскировка) - masking - effectively a state-level Call My Bluff.  'The launch pads and fixed launch sites don't reflect the utility of drone warfare, which is light, rapidly deployable, and not reliant on fixed infrastructure. Therefore, the fixed infrastructure sends a message: an oblique threat we could carry out if we wanted to.  'It’s part of a sustained series of operations in the Grey Zone. The reality is we are under attack from Russian drones today and have been for some time. The mysterious drones over USAF airbases in the UK, the drone with explosives at Leipzig airport near a Ukrainian transport aircraft, the many drone sightings over German, Danish and Swedish critical infrastructure and military bases.  'So the question is, would Putin attack European countries overtly with identifiable military capability to punish them for supporting Ukraine?' For Ingram, the simple answer is no - 'he would not risk the potential for a collective response under NATO's Article 5 or another coalition'. 'Putin's conventional military capability is weak; it can't generate enough combat power to win decisively in Ukraine - he can’t afford to open another conventional front.  'The other issue is, he doesn't need to; he is attacking us on a daily basis in the Grey Zone, and he can ramp that up as much as he likes, as he is seeing the West fail to respond to those attacks.' De Bretton-Gordon agrees. While Russia's drones 'absolutely' have the range to reach Europe, the chance of the unmanned aircraft getting through the air defences to penetrate Britain is 'pretty unlikely', and Putin knows that. He suggests the publicity surrounding the new drone bases and railways is a state-led 'disinformation and propaganda' mechanism, designed to scare the West and reignite support among his own population. 'People in Russia are losing faith in Putin. There's a lot of disgruntlement with the fact that Ukraine seems to attack Moscow and St. Petersburg at will. There is a lot of discontent, that people can't buy fuel, or if they can, it's really expensive,' he said. While news of the new bases might be a helpful domestic tactic to restore confidence, 'it strikes me that Western and Ukrainian intelligence is slightly one step ahead,' he said, adding that the sites make 'pretty straightforward targets for Western or Ukrainian attack drones, if required'. 'Russia is struggling. Putin is really struggling at the moment. He's got the issue that he might have to go to general mobilisation, because he's running out of troops.  'A lot of people think that that would be the final straw that finishes him off, because people aren't prepared for general mobilisation.  'He is a cornered rat, and he's trying everything.' The threat against Europe Putin is attempting to project is less a genuine military strategy, and more a political tactic, designed to persuade NATO into relinquishing its support for Ukraine, he said.  'Russia has attacked Ukraine now for almost five years. Militarily, a country fairly insignificant. And Russia has not really achieved a great deal except lost over 1.5million men on the battlefield.  'The thought that Russia could actually attack and damage NATO is fanciful. But it's all part of Putin's campaign to persuade NATO, and particularly the Americans, not to support Ukraine.' While Putin may not be able to overpower NATO in a military capacity, he is certainly inflicting political damage to the alliance with the frequent drone incursions, according to Peter Dickinson, a prominent scholar on the conflict. 'Russia’s escalating acts of aggression against NATO have sparked widespread alarm and generated considerable international headlines but have not yet led to any significant countermeasures from the alliance itself,' he wrote for the Atlantic Council. 'On the contrary, many countries have consciously sought to downplay airspace breaches and other security threats, portraying them as isolated incidents or accidents rather than as evidence of a coordinated Russian campaign.  'This obvious reluctance to impose additional costs on the Kremlin will only embolden Putin and fuel Russian perceptions of Western frailty.'