As is tradition, the day of the budget announcement remains a non-event for many consumers, who know that the finance minister’s speech in the National Assembly will bring little in the way of relief, focusing instead on praising the government’s past measures and setting new budgetary and revenue targets under pressure from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
However, this year’s budget carries greater significance, as consumers are already struggling to make ends meet amid heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Higher freight and insurance charges imposed by shipping lines following the US–Israel and Iran conflict have pushed up the cost of production.
Some manufacturers have tried to absorb this cost pressure, while others have simply passed the burden on to consumers. This has been partly cushioned by relative stability in the rupee–dollar parity; otherwise, the situation would have been far more alarming.
Prospects for strong industrial growth remain constrained under the current IMF programme, as fiscal consolidation and revenue generation continue to be key priorities
Consumers are curtailing petrol and diesel purchases due to unaffordable prices. Monthly petrol and diesel sales are not showing any growth despite rising bike and four-wheeler sales. During 11MFY26, petrol and diesel sales stood at seven million tonnes and 6.35m tonnes, showing a marginal year-on-year (YoY) rise of two per cent and 1pc, respectively.
Cost pressures set to persist
Senior Vice President, Federation of Pakistan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (FPCCI), Saquib Fayyaz Magoon, said that Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, during a recent meeting with the business community, indicated that the upcoming budget is expected to focus on export-led growth. However, ‘significant relief on essential commodities appears unlikely’.
The government is targeting a revenue collection of around Rs15.2 trillion for FY27, suggesting the introduction of additional taxation measures to meet fiscal objectives. The continued phasing out of subsidies under the IMF programme could increase the cost of goods and services, adding further pressure on consumers, he said.
“A reduction in the 18pc GST also seems difficult given the government’s commitment to achieving IMF revenue targets,” Magoon said, adding that while some sector-specific incentives may be announced, “broad-based relief on essential items and petroleum products appears limited despite changing market dynamics arising from the Middle East conflict.”
SVP FPCCI said prospects for strong industrial growth remain constrained under the current IMF programme, as fiscal consolidation and revenue generation continue to be key priorities.
CEO Top Line Securities Mohammad Sohail said “under the IMF programme, it looks difficult that the government can provide any major relief.” Increase in wages, lower tax rate on people earning less and more direct subsidies may help to some extent, he said, adding that “major relief can only come through diesel and petrol prices, which are affected by the Middle East war.”
President Karachi Chamber of Commerce and Industry (KCCI), Rehan Hanif, while commenting on the possibility of relief for the salaried class in the upcoming Federal Budget, stated that meaningful and sustainable relief can only be achieved if the government shifts its entire focus towards broadening the tax base instead of further burdening the existing taxpayers, including the salaried class.
The salaried class has become one of the most heavily taxed segments of society despite having no opportunity to conceal income, as taxes are deducted at source.
He cautioned against any increase in the GST, warning that even a one-percentage-point increase could trigger a fresh wave of inflation, raise the cost of doing business, increase production costs, and further diminish the purchasing power of consumers, particularly low- and middle-income groups.
President KCCI said, “the revenue required for providing relief to the common man can be generated through plugging leakages and eliminating tax distortions rather than imposing additional taxes.”
The government can still provide meaningful relief to the public by rationalising indirect taxes, reducing unnecessary duties on essential commodities, curbing inefficiencies in the supply chain, and ensuring that any benefit arising from lower international commodity prices is promptly passed on to consumers, the KCCI chief said.
Inflation can be effectively controlled through improved market oversight, reduction in transportation and energy costs, and by minimising the cascading impact of excessive taxation on the cost of goods, he said, urging the government to refrain from imposing additional petroleum levies or other indirect charges that unnecessarily inflate fuel costs.
President Karachi Wholesalers Grocers Association (KWGA), Rauf Ibrahim, said the government is unlikely to provide any big relief to the consumers in the shape of GST reduction or other taxes on various commodities due to the IMF’s pressure to increase tax collection, while the economy is already under pressure due to stagnant exports and rising imports.
Rising prices
A general price survey before the previous and current federal budgets reveals a steep rise in wheat and flour varieties despite the arrival of Sindh and Punjab crops in March/April.
As per data from the Sensitive Price Index ending June 4, 2026, versus June 4, 2025, a 10kg wheat bag is now available at Rs 1,095 versus Rs653, resulting in a price hike for various roti varieties by Rs2 to Rs10 per piece.
Sindh Minister for Food Makhdoom Mehboob Uz Zaman, on June 2, 2026, took notice of the increase in bread and flour prices in different parts of Sindh and directed the Sindh Food Department and concerned district administrations to submit a detailed report on flour prices, wheat stock positions, supply chain issues, and any possible hoarding or profiteering in the market.
He said Sindh has produced a bumper wheat crop this year, and there is no justification for creating panic in the market.
Similarly, the prices of beef with bones and mutton have risen to Rs1,000–1,550 and Rs1,800–2,900 per kg, respectively, from Rs800–1,400 and Rs1,600–2,450 per kg, while exports of meat and meat preparations to the Middle East and other regions continue amid the ongoing conflict in the region.
Published in Dawn, The Business and Finance Weekly, June 8th, 2026
