Clarifying A Climate “Worst-Case” Scenario With A Simple Analogy

InnovationScienceClarifying A Climate “Worst-Case” Scenario With A Simple AnalogyByMarshall Shepherd,Senior Contributor.Follow AuthorMay 26, 2026, 07:53am EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.A vehicle sits in deep water after a river overflows following record breaking rainfall.gettyThe United Kingdom and France are currently suffering through a heatwave that would be impressive for the middle of summer. It’s May. A heat dome is the culprit. “It’s the same mechanism that has been affecting India for weeks, with temperatures exceeding 45 degrees Celsius (112 degrees Fahrenheit) in some places, and has led to wildfires in Canada in 2021,” noted France24.com. In my neck of the woods, we’ve experienced one of the worst spring droughts on record and with intermittent extreme bursts of rainfall that shut down major interstates in Atlanta. Yet, a recent discussion within the scientific community has mistakenly created a false narrative for the public. Let’s use a simple analogy to explain the confusion and why climate change is still a major threat to society.The Worst-Case Climate Scenario Retired But There Is A “But”“I’ve got to say that I’m really disappointed in the recent discourse surrounding the RCP8.5 scenario,” wrote climate expert Daniel Swain on his LinkedIn page. “The lack of context and understanding is something I expected from the usual suspects, but it’s frustrating to see such bad takes from people and outlets who should know better,” he went on to say. What is he talking about?Recently, a UN panel of scientists essentially said the RCP8.5 scenario, often called the “worst-case” scenario, is likely not going to be realized. What’s that? Swain refers to it as the “burn all the coal” scenario, which was likely never going to happen anyhow. I will circle back to this later, but I need to bring scenarios into the chat.Trends in U.S. coal consumption.U.S. EIAWhat Are Scenarios...