In yesterday's opening paragraph, I wrote about how lines can stand out and are odd. I took the Tampa Bay Rays to beat the Orioles, with the Rays sending one of their best pitchers to the mound. Shane McClanahan was great in the game, but unfortunately, the bullpen couldn't hold it for him. With a 2-0 lead, they gave up two to the Orioles in the bottom of the 8th, before Baltimore walked it off in the 10th. Not a bad look, but a bad result. Today we switch across the country as the Reds take on the Diamondbacks.
The Cincinnati Reds are unlikely to make the postseason unless they can find a way to get hot. There is a lot to like about the Reds, but there are also some glaring holes. They just recently lost their best pitcher, Hunter Greene, and unfortunately for them, it doesn't seem like they have much in the minor leagues to make up for him. The team started with a 20-11 record for the year, and then it was pretty much downhill from there. An eight-game losing streak followed, and they haven't been above .500 since June 3.
Today they send out Andrew Abbott to the hill. I think Abbott is a bit underrated, but he isn't doing my assessment any favors this season. He is 6-8 with a 4.08 ERA and a 1.40 WHIP. He has been a better pitcher on the road than he has been in Cincinnati, throwing to a 3.36 ERA in road games and a 4.78 ERA in home games. Interestingly enough, those stats matter more to me here because he has thrown the exact same number of innings (69.2) at home and on the road. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in all but one of his road starts this year (it just so happened to be that he allowed five in his most recent road start against the White Sox). He faced the Diamondbacks once this season and turned in a good outing, going five innings and allowing just four hits and one solo homer.
The Arizona Diamondbacks are in the midst of a playoff push, and something is going on with one of their best players. Ketel Marte is missing in action. There was a report that he was seen gambling at a casino while the rest of his team was close by, playing a game. I'm not really sure what is going on with him - is this an excused absence because of something that happened, or is this a response to him being dangled in trades for over a year? Whatever it might be, the team can't afford to be distracted at the moment as they are above .500 and only a couple of games back of the final Wild Card spot.
Looking to get them some more traction in that race is today's starter, Mitch Bratt. We haven't seen Bratt get a ton of action this year, as this will be just his ninth start of the season. He has thrown 36.2 innings, has a 1-2 record, 4.17 ERA, and a 1.47 WHIP. Many pitchers, especially younger ones, find comfort in home starts. They don't usually have to worry about tough fans, and they can get into the same routine over and over. Bratt has a 2.04 ERA in three starts in Arizona, compared to a 6.16 ERA on the road. He has never faced the Reds, and he does very well against teams the first time through lineups.
We have two pitchers in more optimal positions for today's game. Abbott throws better on the road, and Bratt throws better at home. However, you really can't trust either of them to not allow a run. This is the rubber match of the two teams, and we know offensively the Diamondbacks are the better club. However, I think this is a game the Reds can steal. Bratt doesn't go too deep into games, and I think the Reds can get to the bullpen. Maybe I just trust Abbott more; maybe I think the Marte distraction is going to catch up to them; maybe it is a gut feeling. Whatever it is, give me the Reds.
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