China warns of super El Niño rivaling one of history's strongest

China's Ministry of Natural Resources said on Friday that a super El Niño is expected to develop in the autumn and winter of 2026, with the potential to rival or even surpass the record-setting 1997-98 event. The ministry urged authorities to prepare for a range of climate- and ocean-related hazards.

The forecast, issued by the ministry's National Marine Environment Forecasting Center (NMEFC), comes as parts of China recover from deadly floods and tornadoes triggered by Typhoon Maysak, while other regions prepare for Typhoon Bavi during the country's June-to-August peak flood season.

The center warned that El Niño's effects are often more pronounced in the following year. It forecast above-average rainfall across the Yangtze River Basin in the summer of 2027, increasing the risk of severe flooding and placing greater pressure on flood-control efforts.

El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern that develops every few years when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become unusually warm. It can disrupt weather patterns worldwide, triggering extreme events such as floods, droughts and heatwaves. The 1997-98 El Niño was among the strongest on record, causing widespread damage globally, including historic flooding in China, the country's worst since 1949.

According to the report, sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific have risen rapidly since spring, with warming already exceeding that observed at the same stage of the 1997-98 super El Niño. The agency expects the current El Niño, which emerged in May, to strengthen into a strong or super event by autumn and winter, increasing the likelihood of setting a new record.

The report says its assessment is broadly consistent with those of other forecasting models, though it does not identify specific institutions. Earlier this week, the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) issued an El Niño Advisory saying there is an 81 percent chance of a very strong El Niño developing during October through December, with the event expected to rank among the strongest on record since 1950.