Can Susan Collins defy political gravity again?: From the Politics Desk

From the Politics DeskCan Susan Collins defy political gravity again?: From the Politics DeskPlus, oil prices drop as the U.S. and Iran pause strikes. Listen to this article with a free profile00:0000:00Add NBC News to GoogleKornacki: Which states Democrats ‘have to win’ for control of Congress04:26Get more newsLiveonShareAdd NBC News to GoogleJuly 27, 2026, 5:00 PM EDTBy The Politics DeskWelcome to From the Politics Desk, a daily newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.In today’s edition, Sahil Kapur digs into the challenge facing Sen. Susan Collins now that her general election matchup is set. Plus, we have the latest on the on-again, off-again Iran war.Sign up to receive this newsletter in your inbox every weekday here.— Adam WollnerCan Susan Collins defy political gravity again, or is she 2026’s Jon Tester?Analysis by Sahil KapurThe case for Republican Sen. Susan Collins in this year’s pivotal Maine Senate race goes like this: She’s a proven winner with an independent brand that will allow to her rise above her party’s unpopular image.If that sounds familiar, it’s because the same case was made for then-Sen. Jon Tester, D-Mont., two years ago.Much like Collins in Maine, Tester repeatedly won in a state that his party consistently loses. But then his luck ran out: In 2024, amid a difficult political climate for his party, he once again overperformed national Democrats, but lost to Republican Tim Sheehy.A former Tester campaign operative predicted Collins will be the Tester of the 2026 cycle. The operative, who spoke on condition of anonymity due to a new job that prohibits going on the record, said Sheehy won by tying Tester to the national party and narrowing his runway to win due to a shrinking share of ticket-splitters.“The lesson there is you can’t outrun the national environment, or you can only outrun it so much,” the operative said. “Susan Collins is the...