Burnham is warned he may face the 'Putin test' in his first few weeks of taking charge

By FRANCINE WOLFISZ, NEWS REPORTER Published: 22:18, 9 July 2026 | Updated: 22:21, 9 July 2026 Andy Burnham should brace for major provocation from Russia just weeks after taking power, a former chief foreign adviser to Downing Street has warned. Analyst John Bew, who advised consecutive prime ministers Boris Johnson, Liz Truss, Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer before stepping down from the role last year, said Mr Burnham will need to hit the ground running on international affairs despite indications he would prefer to focus on domestic issues. The former political adviser said there was a 'high likelihood' of Vladimir Putin making an aggressive move against the backdrop of a waning Russian campaign against Ukraine. This could involve Russia mounting a 'hybrid attack' against a Nato country or Baltic state involving physical and cyber warfare. His political prognosis comes as Washington warned last week the Kremlin is planning an armed incursion on Polish land to test Nato's response. The provocation could see Putin's troops cross over into Poland, and vital infrastructure could be targeted by missiles and drones. Sources close to Polish President Karol Nawrocki said the US had been warning Warsaw about the plan for a while, which analysts believe aims to start a crisis to scare Western nations into stopping their support for Ukraine. Polish security experts meanwhile warned that Russia and Belarus might send a small number of troops across the Nato border. Andy Burnham should brace for major provocation from Russia just weeks after taking power, a former chief foreign adviser to Downing Street has warned Former political adviser John Bew said there was a 'high likelihood' of Vladimir Putin making an aggressive move against the backdrop of a waning Russian campaign against Ukraine  Power stations could also be targeted in the incursion through air strikes that would force Poland to activate its air defence systems and in effect widen the regional conflict. The incoming PM could also face the prospect of escalating tensions between the US and Iran and a reignition of the Middle East war. Speaking to The Times' The General and The Journalist podcast, Mr Bew argued that the Prime Minister cannot 'ignore' potential international incidents looming large on the horizon. The former analyst also argued Britain needs to secure her position on the international stage, rather than the Prime Minister using his efforts to focus inwards. He said: 'The international foreign policy and national security space is actually so intimately tied up with other things this government will want to do around the creation of prosperity.' Mr Bew reiterated that only a year ago Britain warned it must better prepare for a 'direct attack' on the country. That prediction featured within the Government's own strategy on national security - which Mr Bew authored. He said a year later not enough weight had been placed on the concerning analysis. Mr Bew added: 'Have we done enough on the homeland defence bit? Clearly not. There are gaps and there's holes in those gaps, particularly in terms of missile defence that are looking more profound and more significant.' Earlier on Thursday, Mr Burnham insisted the US will remain Britain's 'most important ally' as he hinted at his foreign policy approach. The former Greater Manchester Mayor said the so-called Special Relationship will remain 'critical' amid concerns about how he will deal with Donald Trump. Mr Burnham previously said in 2017 that he would refuse to meet Mr Trump as a 'matter of principle' because he had shared 'hateful extremist material'. For his part, the Republican president admitted he does not know much about Mr Burnham beyond that he is 'extremely liberal'. Mr Bew argued that the Prime Minister cannot 'ignore' potential international incidents looming large on the horizon Washington warned last week the Kremlin is planning an armed incursion on Polish land to test Nato's response. Pictured: Polish soldiers move ashore from a military motorboat during a military exercise in June 2026 Mr Burnham, writing in The Times, also effectively endorsed Keir Starmer's defence investment plan, despite anger that the £15billion boost over the next four years is not funded. He also stopped short of laying out any timetable for spending 3 per cent of GDP on the military - as Mr Trump pushed Nato into agreeing a 3.5 per cent goal by 2035. Sir Keir's successor additionally made clear he wanted to use extra defence investment to 'back British workers and businesses'. 'This means we must go further than ever before through the defence investment plan in backing British resilience, using a sustained increase in defence investment not only to provide the kit our armed forces need, but also to generate economic growth in communities that have seen opportunities drain away,' he said.