Britain and its NATO allies face direct challenge from Putin 'within months' to test Burnham and probe for cracks in the alliance while Trump distracted with Iran, intelligence insiders warn

By BRENDAN CARLIN and DAN HODGES, DAILY MAIL COLUMNIST Published: 01:50, 26 July 2026 | Updated: 01:57, 26 July 2026 Britain and its NATO allies face a direct challenge from Vladimir Putin 'within months' to test Andy Burnham's new government and Donald Trump's focus on Iran, UK intelligence sources have warned. They say that Putin will seek to take advantage of any difference in UK resolve now that Mr Burnham has replaced Sir Keir Starmer as Prime Minister. The Mail on Sunday can also reveal that Moscow is already seeking to stretch UK resources by re-routing its shadow fleet of oil tankers away from the Channel after one of them was intercepted there by Royal Marine Commandos last month. The vessels, which ferry millions of barrels of oil in defiance of Western sanctions, are instead reaching the Atlantic via the seas north of the Shetland Islands. Even as Mr Burnham was taking over as PM last Monday, a Russian frigate sparked alarm by carrying out a live-fire artillery exercise just 46 miles south of Plymouth. But now UK intelligence sources are warning of potentially much greater provocation from Moscow. One intelligence source said: 'There's now a strong belief Putin is preparing some sort of direct confrontation with NATO at some point over the next couple of months. 'There are a number of factors playing into this - the belief Trump is distracted by Iran and signs of division among the Ukrainian leadership.' Britain and its NATO allies face a direct challenge from Vladimir Putin'within months' to test Andy Burnham's new government, UK intelligence sources have warned The warnings come amid threats by Iran to strike British bases which it regards as 'legitimate targets' for allowing US bombers to operate from them. Pictured: RAF Fairford HMS Iron Duke shadows RFN Neustrashimy and cargo ship Sparta (file pic) The source made clear that Putin's own frustration with how the war in Ukraine was unfolding was also a factor, saying: 'There's a feeling that if he [Putin] can't somehow change the momentum on the battlefield, the war will be lost.' However, he added that the change of government in the UK would also lead the Russian president to 'want to try and test Burnham, and see if he can exploit any divisions between the old and new administrations'. The warnings come amid threats by Iran to strike British bases which it regards as 'legitimate targets' for allowing US bombers to operate from them in the escalating conflict with Tehran. The UK has allowed US use of bases such as RAF Fairford but on the basis that the operations are only 'defensive'. But this newspaper understands that so serious are the Iranian threats that British secret intelligence services have activated a major covert operation to counter any attack on RAF Fairford. There are also continuing concerns that despite plans to improve, Britain was still highly vulnerable to a ballistic missile attack and was within range of some Iranian missiles. Tim Ripley of the Defence Eye website said: 'America's top commander in the Middle East, Admiral Brad Cooper, has confirmed that the Iranians have a type of missile with the range potentially to hit London.' It also emerged that new Defence Secretary Wes Streeting spoke with his US opposite number Pete Hegseth on Friday about the situation in the Strait of Hormuz as well as defence investment. And yesterday, the Ministry of Defence insisted that the UK 'stands ready 24/7' to defend itself from air and missile threats. And last night, new Defence Secretary Wes Streeting reacted defiantly to any potential action by Moscow. He declared: 'Russia should be in no doubt about the resolve of this Government and this Prime Minister to stand against Russian aggression, not just in Ukraine, but also any aggression against the UK and our allies. 'Just this week we've invested over £700m in our advanced fighter jet programme and other technologies, showing our commitment to deterrence, while supporting innovation, jobs and growth across Britain.'