BJP’s Bengal blueprint: Hold the north, chase the south

For the BJP, while breaching the Trinamool Congress’s (TMC) South Bengal fortress is the key to winning the West Bengal Assembly elections, of equal importance is maintaining its grip on North Bengal, which has 54 seats. Since campaigning kicked into high gear a couple of weeks ago, high-profile visits by Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee, and recent visits by Union Home Minister Amit Shah and Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma, to address public meetings underscore the importance of the region for both parties. For the BJP, its foundation in Bengal is built upon constituencies in districts such as Darjeeling, Alipurduar, Jalpaiguri, Cooch Behar, and Uttar and Dakshin Dinajpur. In 2019, the region contributed to the BJP’s record performance in the parliamentary elections in the state, winning seven of the eight Lok Sabha constituencies in the region — overall, it won 18 of the 42 seats in the state — with leads in 35 of the 54 Assembly segments. In 2021, the TMC made a marginal improvement as the BJP won 30 Assembly constituencies while the TMC bagged 23. Even as the TMC put in another strong performance in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP held on in north Bengal, winning six of the eight parliamentary seats and securing leads in 31 Assembly segments. The TMC’s tally came down to 17 Assembly segments where it took the lead, while the Congress was ahead in six. While the Rajbongshi community is the dominant group in several of these seats and is among the BJP’s main support bases, the party also draws support from the tea belt and the Hills, where the longstanding issue is that of the demand for a separate Gorkhaland, something that Shah addressed during his recent visit to the area. The Rajbongshis or the Koch-Rajbongshis are estimated to number more than 33 lakh in Cooch Behar, Jalpaiguri, Darjeeling, Malda, and Murshidabad. Traditionally supporters of the Left during its 34-year rule, they shifted to the TMC after it came to power in 2011 and backed the BJP in 2019 after growing disillusioned with the Mamata-led government for not fulfilling their demands such as Greater Cooch Behar and other developmental needs. The TMC’s sole ally in the state, the Anit Thapa-led Bharatiya Gorkha Prajatantrik Morcha (BGPM), is in the Darjeeling Hills, where it is contesting the three seats of Darjeeling, Kurseong, and Kalimpong. For the TMC, which claims to be the only anti-BJP party in the state and did not cede even a single seat to the Congress, the Darjeeling concession is tactical, driven by regional compulsions. Anit Thapa’s rapid rise came following the 2017 Gorkhaland agitation and, with Mamata Banerjee’s backing, has consolidated his position. Thapa’s opponent is Bimal Gurung’s Gorkha Janmukti Morcha (GJM), which is contesting the election in alliance with the BJP but all its candidates are contesting on the BJP symbol. The TMC’s attempt to claw its way back in the region hinges on its performance in Malda and Uttar Dinajpur —  two of the districts where the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls has had a big impact and where the ruling party in the state hopes to benefit from anger from the electorate over the exercise — and Jalpaiguri and Dakshin Dinajpur, where the results were close five years ago. The BJP won all five seats in Darjeeling, while an Independent candidate bagged Kalimpong. The BJP dominated by winning 7 seats The BJP swept all five seats, even the ones in the tribal belts such as Kalchini and Madarihat. The TMC outperformed the TMC in the minority-dominated district, winning constituencies such as Chopra, Goalpokhar, and Karandighi. While the TMC got 7 seats, the BJP bagged 2. The TMC won 8 seats in the minority-dominated district, while the BJP managed to retain some foothold in the northern segments, securing 4 seats. Ravik Bhattacharya is a highly experienced and award-winning journalist currently s... Read More Atri Mitra is a highly accomplished Special Correspondent for The Indian Express, bringing Read More