Bitter Harvest: How The Iran Crisis Is Altering Fertilizer Markets

BusinessEnergyBitter Harvest: How The Iran Crisis Is Altering Fertilizer MarketsByAriel Cohen,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Ariel Cohen is a D.C.-based contributor who covers energy and securityFollow AuthorMay 28, 2026, 09:00am EDTMalnutrition is set to explode due to a global fertilizer supply squeeze.gettyWarfare in the Persian Gulf is hitting markets well beyond oil and gas. Disruptions near the southern Iranian coastal city of Bandar Abbas and the near-blockade of the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly one-third of globally traded fertilizer moves — are forcing buyers to rethink sourcing strategies that had been established for decades. Fertilizer prices track the cost of natural gas, one of their principal production inputs, meaning energy shocks ripple directly into the agricultural markets.Coupled with past dependence on Russian natural gas for European fertilizer production (Yara International, EuroChem, and Grupa Azoty), the result is a market where oil commands the headlines, but fertilizer supply is quietly becoming more urgent. Why Fertilizer Flows Are Shifting Faster Than Oil Markets Oil markets absorb shocks. Fertilizer markets do not.Unlike crude, which trades on deep, liquid global exchanges, fertilizer moves through tighter, more regionally constrained supply chains. With logistics in the Persian Gulf snarled and endangered due to the conflict, rerouting is not seamless. The Strait of Hormuz is a choke point not only for energy, but for the agricultural inputs that underpin global food production.The distinction matters. Oil disruptions trigger price volatility; fertilizer disruptions threaten planting cycles. For fertilizer-import-dependent economies such as India and Brazil, delays translate directly into higher food production costs and, ultimately, inflation that governments cannot easily absorb.MORE FOR YOU Global economic choke points at the entrances to the Red Sea and Persian Gulf th...