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29 Nisan 2026AnkaraPetrol İhraç Eden Ülkeler Örgütü'ne (OPEC) 1967'de katılan BAE, grubun yapısının şekillenmesinde etkili aktörlerden biri olarak, son yıllarda üretim kapasitesini artırma talebiyle öne çıkıyordu. BAE'nin bütçe dengesini sağlamak için varil başına yaklaşık 50 dolarlık petrol fiyatı yeterli olurken Suudi Arabistan'ın yaklaşık 90 dolara ihtiyaç duyması iki ülkenin, grubun izleyeceği politikalar üzerinde çekişmesine yol açtı. Üye ülkelerin üretim kotalarını düzenleyerek küresel piyasalarda petrol fiyatları desteklemeye çalışan OPEC'te bu tür kararlar üyelerin enerji bakanlarından oluşan Bakanlar Konferansı'nda alınıyor. Bu kararların hukuken bağlayıcılığı bulunmamasına rağmen üyeler bu kararlara büyük ölçüde uyuyor. Üretim kapasitesine son dönemde 62 milyar dolar yatırım yapan Abu Dabi yönetimi ise kısıtlamaya gitmek yerine bu yatırımı gelire dönüştürmeyi hedeflediği için grup üyeliğinden çıkarak petrol ihracat gelirlerini artırmayı amaçlıyor. Norveç merkezli araştırma kuruluşu Rystad Energy'nin Kıdemli Başkan Yardımcısı Jorge Leon, BAE'nin OPEC'ten ayrılma kararının bir kırılmaya işaret ettiğini belirterek, kararın OPEC'in piyasa üzerindeki etkisini zayıflatabileceğini söyledi. Leon, BAE'nin Suudi Arabistan'la birlikte OPEC'te anlamlı düzeyde yedek üretim kapasitesine sahip az sayıdaki üyeden biri olduğunu, bu kapasitenin ise grubun piyasa üzerindeki etkisini sağlayan temel mekanizma olduğunu belirtti. Bu ayrılığın kısa vadede etkisinin Hürmüz Boğazı'nda devam eden aksaklıklar nedeniyle sınırlı kalabileceğini ifade eden Leon, uzun vadede ise bunun yapısal olarak daha zayıf bir OPEC anlamına geleceğini vurguladı. Leon, BAE'nin OPEC'ten ayrıldığında üretimi artırma isteğine ve bunu gerçekleştirecek kapasiteye sahip olacağını vurgulayarak, "Bu ayrılık Suudi Arabistan'ın piyasanın ana dengeleyicisi rolünün sürdürülebilirliğine ilişkin daha geniş soru işaretleri yaratıyor." dedi. OPEC'in arz dengesizliklerini yönetme kapasitesinin azalmasının daha oynak bir petrol piyasasına yol açacağını söyleyen Leon, "Daha dalgalı bir petrol piyasasıyla karşı karşıya kalabiliriz." değerlendirmesinde bulundu. Oxford Üniversitesi Enerji Sistemleri Öğretim Görevlisi Adi Imsirovic de BAE'nin kararının grubun iç dengelerini sarsabilecek kritik bir adım olduğunu belirterek, "Bu karar OPEC için sonun başlangıcı olabilir." dedi. BAE'nin uzun yıllardır Suudi Arabistan'ın en güvenilir müttefiklerinden biri olduğunu belirten Imsirovic, "BAE, Suudilerin en güvenilir yardımcılarından biriydi. Kuveyt ile birlikte OPEC'in çekirdek yapısını oluşturuyorlardı." ifadelerini kullandı. Imsirovic, ayrılık kararının özellikle savaşın sona ermesi ve Hürmüz Boğazı’nın yeniden tamamen açılmasının ardından daha belirgin sonuçlar doğuracağını vurgulayarak, "OPEC'in çekirdek yapısı daha da küçülecek ve Suudi Arabistan'ın fiyatları kontrol etmesi daha zor hale gelecek." değerlendirmesinde bulundu. OPEC kararlarının bağlayıcılığına ilişkin de konuşan Imsirovic, OPEC'in aldığı kararların uygulanabildiği ölçüde bağlayıcı olduğuna işaret ederek, kurallara uymayan üyelere karşı ciddi siyasi baskı oluştuğunu söyledi. Imsirovic, savaşın sona ermesi ve Hürmüz Boğazı'nın yeniden açılmasıyla üretimde daha serbest bir döneme girilebileceğini ve OPEC'in küresel enerji piyasasındaki etkisini yeniden kazanmasını zorlaşabileceğini anlattı. OPEC, küresel petrol rezervlerinin yaklaşık yüzde 80'ini elinde bulundururken dünya ham petrol üretiminin yaklaşık yüzde 38'ini gerçekleştiriyor. Küresel petrol ihracatındaki payı ise yüzde 50'nin üzerinde bulunuyor. BAE'nin komşusu Suudi Arabistan ile giderek soğuyan ilişkileri ve derinleşen üretim kotası anlaşmazlıkları, 59 yıllık üyeliğin sonlanmasına yol açtı. 14 Eylül 1960'ta petrol üreticisi ülkelerin arz politikalarını koordine etmek amacıyla kurulan OPEC'in mevcut yapısında Cezayir, Kongo, Ekvator Ginesi, Gabon, İran, Irak, Kuveyt, Libya, Nijerya, Suudi Arabistan, Birleşik Arap Emirlikleri ve Venezuela olmak üzere 12 üye yer alıyor. BAE'nin ayrılığıyla birlikte üye sayısı 11'e düşecek. BAE Enerji ve Altyapı Bakanlığından yapılan açıklamada, kararın ülkenin uzun vadeli stratejik ve ekonomik vizyonu ile değişen enerji profili doğrultusunda alındığı belirtilerek, özellikle yurt içi enerji üretimine yönelik yatırımların hızlanmasının bu adımda etkili olduğu ifade edildi. Ayrılık kararının temelinde, petrol üretim kapasitesini maksimize etme stratejisi yatarken üretim politikalarının sorumluluk ve piyasa istikrarı ilkeleri doğrultusunda şekilleneceği, küresel arz ve talep dengesinin dikkate alınmaya devam edileceği bildirildi. Haberi PaylaşAnadolu Ajansı web sitesinde, AA Haber Akış Sistemi (HAS) üzerinden abonelere sunulan haberler, özetlenerek yayımlanmaktadır.Abonelik için lütfen iletişime geçiniz.