Australia warned it needs more immigration to cope with future problem: 'It's going to be very hard to turn around'

By SARAH BROOKES - SENIOR REPORTER, AUSTRALIA Published: 02:35, 14 July 2026 | Updated: 02:41, 14 July 2026 Australia cannot afford to dramatically slash migration as the nation's birth rate crashes to a record low, a demographic expert has warned. The national fertility rate has fallen to just 1.48 births per woman, the lowest level on record and 25 per cent below its 2008 peak, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS), released in June. The figures are below the 2.1 births per woman needed to replace the population without migration. Professor Roger Wilkins, deputy director of the Melbourne Institute and co-director of the HILDA Survey, said Australia's declining fertility rate posed major economic challenges. This includes soaring housing costs, cost-of-living pressures, delayed family formation and changing social attitudes.  'It's going to be very hard to turn around,' he told Bloomberg. 'Policy can have some impact, but I think Australia's longer-term economic interests are in maintaining a healthy immigration program.' Asked whether governments could do more to encourage Australians to have children, Professor Wilkins pointed to the former baby bonus scheme as one policy that appeared to lift birth rates, at least temporarily.  Australia's fertility rate has fallen to just 1.48 births per woman, the lowest level on record and 25 per cent below its 2008 peak Last month, One Nation leader Pauline Hanson (pictured) used a National Press Club address to blame many of Australia's problems on what she described as 'mass migration' Introduced in the early 2000s, the government stipend to parents of a newborn baby or adopted child aimed to assist with the costs of childrearing. It eventually rose to about $7,000 per child and coincided with a short-lived increase in fertility rates before being replaced by the Paid Parental Leave scheme. 'I think there is some merit in programs like that, where large cash payments are made around the time of birth,' Professor Wilkins told the Daily Mail. He said such incentives could be more effective than childcare subsidies because they are simpler for prospective parents to factor into decisions about starting or expanding a family. His warning comes as Prime Minister Anthony Albanese rejects calls to sharply cut migration despite growing support for Pauline Hanson's One Nation party, which has made reducing immigration a centrepiece of its campaign. Last month, Hanson used her National Press Club address to blame many of Australia's problems on what she described as 'mass migration'.  ABS data released in June showed net overseas migration fell to 301,000 in 2025, its lowest level since 2022, although it remains above the government's long-term target of 225,000. The population grew by 412,500 people in the year to December 31, 2025, with net overseas migration accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total, while natural increase contributed 111,500. Professor Roger Wilkins (pictured) said bringing back the baby bonus could help turn around Australia's plunging fertility rate Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (pictured) has defended his government's migration policy, saying it is 'working' Albanese has defended his government's migration policy, despite overseas arrivals hitting well above pre-pandemic levels and exceeding official forecasts. 'They are coming down… 45 per cent is a pretty serious lower trajectory. It will hit 225,000 over the next few years. That is what the objective is,' he told Sky News. Professor Wilkins warned migration alone cannot shield Australia from the economic and labour consequences of a rapidly ageing population. He said labour shortages are likely to worsen as the proportion of Australians in their prime working years shrinks, placing further pressure on the nation's ability to sustain living standards and economic growth. 'Employment will very much follow that,' Professor Wilkins said. 'We will see a decline in the share of the population that is in those prime working ages and ultimately that's where economic output and economic growth comes from. 'So as that declines as a share of the population, the outlook for living standards and economic growth more generally is poor.' Technological advances could help offset some of the challenges, with countries such as Japan increasingly turning to robotics to support ageing populations.  'Australia cannot solve an ageing population through migration alone, and it cannot solve it through robots alone,' futurologist Rocky Scopelliti told the Daily Mail. 'Japan provides an important glimpse into the demographic pressures Australia may face if low fertility becomes deeply entrenched. 'Japan's declining birth rate and ageing population have contributed to severe workforce shortages, particularly in health and aged care, and the country is increasingly investing in AI-enabled robotics to assist with physical care, household activities, mobility, monitoring and daily living. 'Recent Japanese research includes advanced humanoid systems capable of helping people sit up, repositioning patients, preparing food and assisting with household tasks. 'Australia should learn from Japan but not simply copy it.'