Aussie economist who predicted the global financial crisis issues a warning as Iran crisis drags on: 'It would cause a global famine'

By SARAH BROOKES - SENIOR REPORTER, AUSTRALIA Published: 02:54, 7 April 2026 | Updated: 03:11, 7 April 2026 A leading Australian economist has issued a stark warning that disruptions to fertiliser supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a global food crisis, putting billions of lives at risk.  Steve Keen, who predicted the 2008 financial crash, said on Monday that without synthetic fertilisers, the Earth could sustain just one to two billion people, a fraction of today's global population of around eight billion. He warned that the ongoing shutdown of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could cut off a significant portion of global trade in key fertiliser inputs.  These include ammonia, sulphur and the natural gas required to produce them, all essential to modern agriculture. The result, he argued, would be stalled fertiliser production, sharply reduced crop yields and a contraction in global food supply, raising the risk of widespread famine. 'Fertiliser is an essential part of growing all the food we eat,' he said on The Diary of a CEO Podcast. 'Twenty to 30 per cent of our fertiliser comes through that region, through the Strait of Hormuz. 'If we lost 20 per cent of the world's fertiliser, we'd lose roughly 20 per cent of the world's food, and it would cause a global famine.' Australian economist Steve Keen (pictured) warned without synthetic fertilisers the Earth could sustain only a fraction of today's population of around eight billion Diary of a CEO host Steven Bartlett (pictured) was told by economist Steve Keen if we lose 20 per cent of the world's fertiliser it'd cause a global famine A cargo ship in the Gulf, near the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli conflict with Iran Keen said that, unlike past famines which were typically confined to regions such as India or parts of Africa, a disruption on this scale would hit globally, with multiple countries facing shortages at the same time. He warned that unless the war ends immediately, a global famine could begin in as little as two months with India likely to run out of fertiliser and experience famine first. 'We've never had this experience before,' he said. 'Food production on the planet could fall 10-25 per cent and there simply won't be enough food for everyone on the planet.  'Then it's a question of who's going to starve.' Keen said it would be a mistake for wealthy nations to assume they are insulated from the crisis.  Using Australia as an example, he said the country holds only about 30 days' worth of oil supplies, meaning once fuel runs out, food can no longer be transported from farms to cities.  NSW farmers harvest wheat amod warnings that without fuel and fertiliser, farmers will be forced to cut production, leading to sharply lower crop yields  'Australia is incredibly vulnerable. We're all far more vulnerable than we realise, and this war is threatening everybody on the planet,' he said. 'People can talk about a war in Iraq and think, oh, that's a war in Iran, and that's going to cut off our oil supply. No, it's going to cut off your food supply.' Australia sources about two‑thirds of its fertiliser and urea from Middle Eastern suppliers, primarily Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates. Indonesia, a major player in the global fertiliser market, has committed to continuing supplies to Australia. Indonesia relies heavily on wheat and meat from Australia, which is also a key sugar supplier to the country. However the country has only about 1.5 million to 2 million tonnes of fertiliser and urea available for export, while Australia consumed 8.7 million tonnes of fertiliser in 2024. Rahmad Pribadi, the head of Indonesia's state‑owned fertiliser producer Pupuk Indonesia, said he discussed the issue last week with Australia's ambassador to Jakarta, Rod Brazier, and confirmed exports would continue. 'Food security is a shared responsibility because of our intertwined and interconnected value chain,' Mr Pribadi told The Australian. 'It is in Indonesia's interests for Australia to remain a strong agricultural producer and exporter because Indonesia is also dependent on Australia for certain commodities. We are very connected.' Farmers have warned Australia’s food production could be slashed as they battle soaring fuel and fertiliser costs. National Farmers’ Federation president Hamish McIntyre said last month: ‘We believe we have enough urea on ships and in Australia to secure this winter crop. ‘What we don’t have is enough to apply in-crop and get set up for summer crops,’ he said. ‘If we can’t secure our in-crop requirements after May, Australia’s winter crop could be halved.’ The World Food Program estimates the Iran conflict could potentially push 45 million additional people into acute hunger by mid-2026 with as many as 343 million people already facing acute levels of food insecurity. Corinne Fleischer, WFP director of supply chain, said in many parts of the world, vulnerable families who today are currently managing to put some food on the table may soon find they are only able to afford little or no food. 'We are very concerned about the long‑term impact this war has on people being able to put food on the table,' she said. 'If cost‑of‑living increases continue, as we are seeing in several countries, they will no longer be able to put food on the table.' Keen said Australians could insulate themselves against some of the downstream consequences by becoming more self sufficient. 'Even if it costs you more to build solar, you've got to build solar as your own alternative energy system. Because without energy, there's no civilisation,' he said. 'The thing that I'm most worried about is the impact upon food. I'm the last person to talk about growing your own food. I've never done it. I've got brown thumbs, not green ones. But I think if you can have any way to produce your own food, you've got a bit of insulation against what's happening at the global level. 'If you have some degree of self-sufficiency, you can survive. 'Money doesn't matter if you can't buy the product in the first instance, the product doesn't exist anymore.' The comments below have not been moderated. 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