At Least 18% of Jobs Face Major AI Risk, OpenAI Economist Predicts

InnovationEnterprise TechAt Least 18% of Jobs Face Major AI Risk, OpenAI Economist PredictsByJoe McKendrick,Senior Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Joe McKendrick covers how technology moves markets and careersFollow AuthorApr 27, 2026, 01:03pm EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.Eliminate or restructure? Is AI ready?gettySome jobs are at risk of being swamped by AI, while others are more likely to be restructured to take greater advantage of AI tools and platforms. The question is, which jobs are more vulnerable? The metric employed to date – exposure to AI – may not have the right answers.That’s the gist of a recent analysis published by Ronnie Chatterji, chief economist at OpenAI, proposes a framework to better understand and prepare for AI’s eventual impact on the labor market. “While AI capabilities are advancing very quickly, businesses, institutions, and labor markets take time to adjust,” the report states. “That lag means we must avoid two kinds of error: overstating immediate disruption and understating long-run impact.”The report examines AI impact across more than 900 occupations covering 153.7 million jobs. About 18% were at near-term high automation risk, the analysis showed. About 25% of jobs have high exposure and strong human necessity and will reorganize. 46% of jobs have less immediate change imminent. Another 12% of jobs could grow because of AI, as lower effective cost may increase utilization, affordability, access, or quality-adjusted output.The framework asks four questions: "Can AI do a meaningful share of the work? "If AI lowers the effective cost of providing the service, is demand likely to expand enough to absorb the productivity gain? "If it can, for remaining tasks, is a person still central to the work’s delivery, judgment, accountability, or physical execution? “Is AI already being used...