As Armenia Looks West, Russia Threatens Its Energy Supply

BusinessEnergyAs Armenia Looks West, Russia Threatens Its Energy SupplyByDaniel Markind,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. I am an attorney who writes about energy issues and our world.Follow AuthorJun 03, 2026, 02:07pm EDTJun 03, 2026, 02:11pm EDTYEREVAN, ARMENIA - FEBRUARY 9: U.S. Vice President JD Vance (L) shakes hands with Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan as they participate in a joint press conference on February 9, 2026 in Yerevan, Armenia. In the first visit to Armenia of a sitting U.S. vice president, Vance is meeting Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, who signed a deal intended to reopen key transportation routes with Azerbaijan. (Photo by Kevin Lamarque-Pool/Getty Images)Getty ImagesArmenia, a small, landlocked country of 3 million people in the Caucasus and a former Soviet Republic, will go to the polls on June 7. Traditionally a strong ally of Russia, it has recently turned westward and begun applying to join the European Union. Currently, the Civil Contract Party of Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, which favors improved relations with the West, is leading in the polls ahead of the election. (Source).Alarmed, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova confirmed on May 27 that Russia had sent a letter to Armenia stating that if the process of accession to the EU continues, the Russian side would suspend or unilaterally terminate the Agreement on Cooperation in the Supply of Natural Gas, Petroleum and Rough Diamonds.This could have a massive impact on Armenia. Unlike its neighbor Azerbaijan, Armenia has no significant oil or natural gas deposits and relies on Russia for about 82% of its natural gas. Still, Prime Minister Pashinyan has pursued a pro-Western policy in the aftermath of Armenia’s losses to Azerbaijan in the wars over the Armenia-occupied region of Karabakh in 2020 and 2023, which led to large numbers of ethnic Armenian refugees returning to Armenia. Noting the presence...