Are 'heat spikes' becoming more common?

Are 'heat spikes' becoming more common?Image source, GettyImage caption, Much of the UK experienced soaring temperatures in an early season May heatwave across England and WalesBySimon King Lead Weather PresenterPublished16 minutes agoWith temperatures hitting a record breaking 35.1C this week, it has been an exceptional May heatwave.In its build up we saw temperatures increase rapidly - by up to 10C in just two days in some locations. Historically, it would have been more common to see a gradual increase of a degree or two each day.The rapid onset from an average to high, even extreme, temperature - or a "heat spike" - is something I and fellow meteorologists have noticed happening more often.Ed Hawkins, professor of climate science at the University of Reading, told the BBC that "Today's heat events are emerging earlier, intensifying faster and occurring across a much warmer background climate".While according to Dr Ségolène Berthou from the Met Office, "We can't explicitly say that extreme heat temperatures spike faster now than they did in the past," experts are beginning to piece together a number of other factors that could provide an explanation.Hotter days give a 'head start'The Met Office's State of the Climate 2024 report shows that in parts of the UK the hottest days are warming around twice as fast as typical days. Compared with 1961–1990, the number of days 5C above average has doubled, while days 10C above average have quadrupled.Or as Dr Berthou expresses it: "Extreme temperatures are increasing faster than average temperatures."Summer daytime highs are already about 1.5C warmer when comparing the 1991-2020 climate period with 1961-1990.After the UK hit 40.3 C in July 2022, Met Office studies showed the likelihood of exceeding 40C is now more than 20 times higher than in the 1960s.The higher baseline - or head start - means similar summer weather patterns now reach heatwave and...