Anthony Albanese hates Pauline Hanson - and he's betting his political future on stopping her: PETER VAN ONSELEN

By PETER VAN ONSELEN, POLITICAL EDITOR, AUSTRALIA Published: 05:22, 12 June 2026 | Updated: 05:22, 12 June 2026 There is growing speculation that Anthony Albanese may not lead Labor to the next federal election. I don't buy it.  The argument goes something like this: he has already won twice, the next election looks difficult, One Nation is surging, the budget has made him vulnerable as untrustworthy, and he may prefer to leave on his own terms rather than risk being dragged down by broken promises and a souring electorate. It's a neat theory, but it fundamentally misunderstands who Albo is. This is not a PM who stumbled into politics late in life. He is institutionalised, having spent more than decades inside the federal parliamentary system. And having reached the top, our PM loves the perks of office. For someone like Albo, the prime ministership isn't just a job. It is the vindication of a life time toiling away not expecting to become PM. Few who reach that office can say that, most felt that it was their destiny. The idea that he would voluntarily surrender it before seeking a third term feels unlikely because of the size of his win last year and the fractured state of the conservative right.  Besides, there is no obvious successor: Jim Chalmers has little factional support, fellow left winger Tanya Plibersek has been vanquished, and Albo's preferred heir apparent, Mark Butler, needs more time to become the obvious next in line. Also, Australian prime ministers almost never get to script their own exits. They are ousted by voters or removed by colleagues.  Could Anthony Albanese really walk away before the next election? Not likely, writes Peter van Onselen Pauline Hanson isn't the reason Albo will leave politics, but she's the reason he'll stay, writes van Onselen  Robert Menzies is the exception, stepping down in 1966 after 17 years in office. If Albo were to become the second PM to choose the timing of his departure, surely it wouldn't be before winning a third term in power? The psychology of the office points toward defiance, not retirement. Often driven by arrogance.  He will believe he can beat Pauline Hanson, as he should, even if the contest gets ugly. It's a fight the old tory hating Albo won't mind. He won't want Australia's culture shaped by Hansonism, certainly not as a direct follow-up to his time in charge. Nor is age a serious reason to expect his early departure. Albo turns 64 next year. In contemporary politics, that's not especially old.  Donald Trump and Joe Biden both won the White House in their late seventies. Leaders like Narendra Modi, Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, and Xi Jinping have all governed well into their seventies.  Even Hanson herself, the very opponent supposedly causing Labor such concern, is 72 and showing no signs of leaving. The age argument simply doesn't work, not when the insurgent he is supposedly frightened of is older than he is. Jim Chalmers has little factional support from within Labor to take Anthony Albanese's job The more likely scenario is that Albo will want the fight because he sees opportunity within the chaos Hanson is causing.  One Nation's rise hurts Labor, sure, but it also threatens to tear apart what remains of the Coalition.  The Liberal Party is being squeezed from both directions: the Teals have stripped away its moderate, metropolitan heartland, while One Nation eats into its conservative, outer-suburban support.  The Nationals look set to be all but wiped out. The old non-Labor coalition is no longer a stable political machine, which enhances Albo's chances at the next election, even if he's now being branded a liar because of broken election promises. Albo will want to take credit for the electoral disaster coming the Coalition's way, even if its decline is driven by forces beyond him.  He doesn't want to be seen as a prime minister running from One Nation, but as the Labor leader who survived Hanson while presiding over the destruction of the Coalition's old electoral architecture. Of course, the risks are real enough, hence the speculation Albo might call it quits. But this PM isn't detached enough from politics to walk away lightly.  He's also not modest enough to assume someone else would do the job better.  The old non-Labor coalition is no longer a stable political machine, which enhances Albo's chances at the next election writes van Onselen And he's not likely to surrender the pomp, power and historical possibility of a third term just because the next election has become more complicated. The older he's gotten the more Albo has sought to compare himself to John Howard. Not in policy terms, but in the value gleaned from retaining power to keep the other side of politics on the opposition benches. Longevity matters to Albo, which requires him to keep on going.  After all, what other legacy does this PM seriously have? No comments have so far been submitted. Why not be the first to send us your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. 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