Another poll shows a Burnham bounce with Labour leapfrogging Reform - as ministers try to play down snap election rumours

By JAMES TAPSFIELD, UK POLITICAL EDITOR Published: 08:49, 2 August 2026 | Updated: 08:50, 2 August 2026 There was more evidence of an Andy Burnham bounce today with another poll showing the public willing to give him a chance. Opinium research found Labour leapfrogging Reform to take an outright lead for the first time in 15 months. The party was on 27 per cent support, while Nigel Farage's outfit lagged on 23 per cent and the Tories 17 per cent.  That was a major improvement from the 22 per cent backing detected for Labour on July 18 - before Mr Burnham became PM.  At that point Reform was still ahead on 23 per cent, and as recently as June Mr Farage's party had a seven-point advantage. The poll bump has left ministers scrambling to play down speculation of a snap election.  Andy Burnham with new Greater Manchester Mayor Bev Craig yesterday  Opinium research found Labour leapfrogging Reform to take an outright lead for the first time in 15 months Mr Burnham himself tried to kill the rumours last week insisting he had no plans to go to the country early, with the vote not due until 2029.  The PM has seen his personal approval score rocket to plus 16 after a flurry of giveaways, including trimming 5 per cent VAT off electricity bills and capping single bus fares at £2. However, in a potential warning sign that is below Keir Starmer's initial rating on the Opinium tracker, and worse than Theresa May's starting point. Both then endured an agonising plunge in popularity as they wrestled with the deep-seated problems facing the country. The Budget on October 28 is likely to be a critical moment for Mr Burnham, with the public finances under massive pressure and fears of more tax hikes.  Priya Minhas, political and social director at Opinium, said: 'Andy Burnham has enjoyed a significant honeymoon bounce, putting Labour ahead for the first time in 15 months and opening up its largest lead over Reform since January 2025.  The PM has seen his personal approval score rocket to plus 16 after a flurry of giveaways, including trimming 5 per cent VAT off electricity bills and capping single bus fares at £2 'Much of that improvement appears to come from rebuilding Labour's 2019 coalition, particularly by winning back voters who had drifted to the Greens at the last general election. 'Burnham's strongest personal attributes are that voters see him as likeable, competent and decisive.  'Those qualities aren't just translating into strong personal ratings; they seem to be making voters more willing to give the Labour party itself a second chance.'