Andy Burnham's Labour coup 'on a knife edge' as first Makerfield by-election poll shows him effectively level with Reform

By JAMES TAPSFIELD, UK POLITICAL EDITOR Published: 07:55, 24 May 2026 | Updated: 07:55, 24 May 2026 Andy Burnham's hopes of seizing the Labour leadership are on a knife edge as he struggles to fend off Reform in the Makerfield by-election. The first poll of the contest put the Greater Manchester Mayor on 43 per cent support, with Nigel Farage's party on 40 per cent. With public opinion notoriously hard to sample in by-elections, that suggests the outcome is too close to call. The Survation research emerged as the parties ramped up their efforts this weekend, with less than a month until the vote on June 18. On Friday Mr Burnham painted his bid to return to the House of Commons as an opportunity to get rid of Keir Starmer. He said victory would mean 'changing Labour', with the widespread expectation he would mount a quick challenge for the keys to No10. However, Mr Burnham has been coming under increasing scrutiny over what direction he would take the Government. Your browser does not support iframes. The first poll of the contest put Labour on 43 per cent support, with Reform on 40 per cent as Andy Burnham (pictured) bids to return to the Commons He has already backed off his pledge to rejoin the EU - a view popular among MPs but regarded as deeply unhelpful in an area that heavily endorsed Brexit. Mr Burnham was believed to have told Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood he supports her tough immigration crackdown.  However, he has now wavered on whether changes to indefinite leave to remain should be retrospective - regarded as crucial for addressing the wave of arrivals from recent years.  Critics have also accused Mr Burnham of watering down his commitment to a proportional representation - PR - voting system.  Other policies floated by the mayor in the past include increasing the top rate of tax to 50p, while he has praised Gordon Brown's disastrous 10p tax rate.  But that was effectively ruled out during this Parliament by his comments on Friday, when he formally launched his campaign.  'I am committed to the manifesto commitments on tax. I think that's really important from the trust, from the trust point of view,' Mr Burnham said.  He has also suggested that 'wealth' would be shifted from the South to the North of England, with fears a council tax overhaul and 'land value tax' could leave millions of families with bigger bills. Nigel Farage said the contest was a 'two horse race'. Reform's candidate is Robert Kenyon, left  Mr Burnham is hoping that his local 'star power' can overcome the wider trend, after one of his allies dramatically quit to hand him a route back to Parliament.  The Survation poll, shown to the Sunday Times, indicates that Mr Burnham is performing better in the seat than would be expected from Labour's national ratings.  However, a three point gap is perilously tight. Mr Burnham looks to be assisted by relatively low support for the Greens, and Restore Britain's candidate taking a 7 per cent vote share.   Mr Farage said: 'Robert Kenyon is the only candidate who can stop Andy Burnham. This is a two horse race - nobody else comes close.' No comments have so far been submitted. Why not be the first to send us your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.