Andy Burnham warned plan for votes at 16 could 'backfire in spectacular fashion' as report suggests it would see surge in Gaza independent candidates winning seats from Labour

By CHRISTIAN CALGIE, SENIOR POLITICAL CORRESPONDENT-AT-LARGE Published: 01:43, 5 August 2026 | Updated: 01:43, 5 August 2026 Labour's plan to give 16 and 17-year-olds the vote could result in a surge in the number of Gaza independent candidates winning at the next election. The warning came following a report by the Muslim Council of Britain (MCB), which said that by 2029, the current year of the next general election, there will be 49 constituencies where the Muslim voting population aged 16 or over will exceed the incumbent MP's 2024 margin of victory by 10,000 or more. These include the seats of prominent Labour figures, including Defence Secretary Wes Streeting, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and Jess Phillips. While the little-noticed report, published in May, notes that Muslims do not vote as a homogeneous block, the MCB cites its own 'Muslim vote' campaign as a 'factor in the election of four independent MPs' at the last election. Tory chairman Kevin Hollinrake has now warned Andy Burnham that Labour's plan to lower the voting age to 16 could backfire given Britain's rapidly shifting ethnic minority demographics. Mr Hollinrake told the Daily Mail: 'Labour's Votes at 16 plan could backfire in spectacular fashion. 'The Muslim Council of Britain's own figures show 49 constituencies where this expanded electorate could swing the result, and recent elections have shown just how many of those voters are willing to back Gaza independents over Labour. 'Labour thinks a 16-year-old is mature enough to decide who runs the country but not mature enough to buy alcohol-free beer. Andy Burnham has been warned that the votes at 16 policy, which he supports, may backfire on Labour Gaza independent candidates won four seats at the last general election, but could win many more at the next election if votes are extended to 16 and 17-year-olds Adam Shockat won the Leicester South seat in 2024 from Labour frontbencher Jonathan Ashworth, and other senior Labour politicians could be in the firing line in 2029   'The British people will see this for what it is. A cynical attempt to rig the rules by Labour for their own political gain. Labour may find they've opened a Pandora's Box they can't close.' This was echoed by Emma Schubart, a research fellow at the Henry Jackson Society, who said: 'Given the much younger age profile of Britain's Muslim population, the electoral impact of Muslim sectarian politics is likely to grow. 'We should expect more results like the recent local elections, when Muslim sectarian-style candidates achieved striking successes across the country.' In this year's local elections in May, at least 100 Muslim independent councillors were elected to local authorities across Britain, on top of the dozens already serving. Shortly after, the respected Policy Exchange think tank published its own report warning that the local election results were 'the clearest proof yet that, as well as populist parties of Right and Left, Britain faces a growing populist movement among its four million Muslims'. It came after four Gaza independents were elected at the last general election: Shockat Adam (Leicester South), Adnan Hussain (Blackburn), Iqbal Mohamed (Dewsbury and Batley), and Ayoub Khan (Birmingham Perry Barr).  Last year Andy Burnham publicly backed Sir Keir Starmer's plan to give the vote to 16 and 17-year-olds, saying he was 'proud to be supporting a new national effort led by My Life My Say and partners from across the country to lower the voting age to 16 in all UK elections, V16. 'The campaign seeks to update democracy by installing votes at 16, trusting young people to have a say in the decisions that shape their lives.' The Muslim Council of Britain's report, entitled British Muslims in numbers: a statistical compendium, also highlighted the potential of a significant and sustained demographic change in Britain over the coming years. Between 2011 and 2021, the Muslim population increased by 1.2 million and now accounts for 6% of the total population. More than 45% of Muslims are aged under 25, while one in ten schoolchildren is now Muslim.