Andy Burnham is the runaway favourite to replace Sir Keir Starmer as PM among Labour party members

Published: 00:30, 17 May 2026 | Updated: 00:32, 17 May 2026 Andy Burnham is streets ahead of his rivals vying to replace Sir Keir Starmer, according to a snap Mail on Sunday poll of party members who will vote in any contest. The survey, by Find Out Now, puts the Manchester mayor – pictured right out jogging yesterday – neck-and-neck with the Prime Minister when members are asked to name their preferred leader. But with Sir Keir agonising over how to manage his political exit, the figures will add to the growing sense that Labour will crown Mr Burnham as leader. The small-sample poll, carried out after Mr Burnham announced he would be standing for selection in the Makerfield by-election puts Mr Burnham and the Prime Minister both on 36 per cent, well ahead of Angela Rayner on 7 per cent, Ed Miliband on 4 per cent and Wes Streeting on 2 per cent. The figures highlight the difficult path ahead for Mr Streeting in a leadership contest. His background as a Blairite, and his past associations with Peter Mandelson have damaged him among the ranks of Left-leaning party members. The former Health Secretary’s ill-disguised ambitions also appear to have damaged his chances.  Andy Burnham is streets ahead of his rivals vying to replace Sir Keir Starmer, according to a snap Mail on Sunday poll of party members who will vote in any contest After he resigned from the Cabinet on Thursday, he appeared to struggle to recruit enough MPs to launch a campaign, before officially announcing yesterday that he would join any leadership fight. Al Carns, the Armed Forces Minister, who is also prepared to run in a contest, only has 1 per cent support among members. Labour party members also say they are confident – by a margin of more than two to one – that Mr Burnham will win the Makerfield by-election. A wider poll of all voters finds that 54 per cent think that Sir Keir should resign as Prime Minister.  Of those, 37 per cent want him to go immediately while 17 per cent want him to set a timetable for his departure. Just 23 per cent think he should stay. Early projections put the Makerfield by-election on a knife-edge for Mr Burnham. Modelling by polling company Survation suggests that if he was to contest the seat, he would win 45 per cent of the vote, against 42 per cent for whichever candidate represents Nigel Farage’s Reform UK. No comments have so far been submitted. Why not be the first to send us your thoughts, or debate this issue live on our message boards. By posting your comment you agree to our house rules. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual. Do you want to automatically post your MailOnline comments to your Facebook Timeline? Your comment will be posted to MailOnline as usual We will automatically post your comment and a link to the news story to your Facebook timeline at the same time it is posted on MailOnline. To do this we will link your MailOnline account with your Facebook account. We’ll ask you to confirm this for your first post to Facebook. You can choose on each post whether you would like it to be posted to Facebook. Your details from Facebook will be used to provide you with tailored content, marketing and ads in line with our Privacy Policy.