Alcoa Wins From An Aluminum Boom Which Has Further To Run

AsiaAlcoa Wins From An Aluminum Boom Which Has Further To RunByTim Treadgold,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Tim Treadgold is an Australian journalist specializing in miningFollow AuthorMay 25, 2026, 09:38pm EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.Rolls of semi-finished aluminum at an Alcoa factory. (Photo by Sean Gallup/Getty Images)Getty ImagesBig aluminum producer Alcoa has been a winner from the war in Iran and its share price, already up 49% over the past 12-months, could go higher if the latest investment bank research is right.UBS last week upgraded Alcoa from a neutral investment recommendation to buy, forecasting a lift in its Australian listed shares to A$110 ($78), up 11% on last sales and up 23.5% from Friday when the bank sent its note to clients.Up 47% And Still RisingOther aluminum producers, including Australia’s South32 and Norway’s Norsk Hydro have also been rising with the price of the metal which is up 15% since the war started in late February and up 47% since this time last year.Driving the aluminum price, which last traded at $3650 a ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME), is the loss of an estimated 9% of global production which normally comes from smelters in countries affected by the war.Smoke rises after Iran carried out a missile strike on Bahrain. (Photo by Stringer/Anadolu via Getty Images)Anadolu via Getty ImagesClosures, or partial shutdowns, have been forced on factories in the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, and Iran because of damage to equipment or shortages of raw material, especially alumina, the essential feedstock for metal production.MORE FOR YOUUBS said the potential for a protracted Middle East supply disruption was not currently priced into aluminum.Demand for the metal is said to be soft and affected by elevated inventories in China with factors likely to see the LME price consolidate i...