Adaptive deterrence urged to counter India’s hostile posture: Experts

• Experts say New Delhi aims to normalise limited warfare under nuclear risks
• Predict future conflicts will focus on cyber, hybrid and narrative strategies

ISLAMABAD: Leading strategic affairs experts cautioned Monday that while the deterrence equation with India may have held during last year’s conflict, the region’s strategic environment is becoming increasingly fragile. Therefore, they emphasised the need to keep deterrence credible and effective.

That message came through at a book launch hosted by the Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) in Islamabad.

Experts highlighted that regional stability is strained by tech shifts, disinformation, unresolved disputes, and India’s push to normalise limited warfare under nuclear conditions.

Within that broader framing, advisers to the National Command Authority and Strategic Plans Division echoed a clear post-May 2025 conflict lesson, noting that Pakistan must keep deterrence credible and adaptive.

The strongest note of caution came from retired Lt Gen. Khalid Ahmed Kidwai, an adviser to the National Command Authority and a key figure in Pakistan’s nuclear establishment.

He said recent developments had exposed “both the strengths and vulnerabilities of deterrence stability,” stressing the importance of “responsible nuclear stewardship and strategic restraint”.

Remarks by other experts suggested that nuclear strategists see deterrence less as a static equilibrium and more as a system requiring constant management.

Retired Gen Zubair Hayat, former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee, warned that fut­ure conflicts would increasingly inv­olve “hybrid warfare, cyber capa­b­ilities and narrative warfare” alongside conventional military means.

Lt Gen Mazhar Jamil highlighted “India’s evolving offensive thinking” as key to the shifting strategic context, urging Pakistan to keep a cohesive deterrence posture and avoid unnecessary escalation.

His remarks suggested that Pakistani strategic planners expect future crises to test thresholds, apply pressure through limited military means and exploit compressed decision-making timelines.

Retired Lt Gen Sarfraz Sattar, also an NCA adviser, echoed those concerns, saying future crises would require a precise understanding of adversary behaviour alongside “credible deterrence backed by coordinated political and military signalling”.

Former ambassador Zamir Akram, currently an SPD adviser, warned that India’s posture was “deepening insecurity” across the region. He argued that mistrust would continue to grow in the absence of “meaningful dialogue” between the two sides.

Retired Brig Dr Zahir Kazmi, an SPD arms control adviser, said deterrence depends equally on “strategic communication, political resolve and cognitive resilience”.

CISS Executive Director Ali Sarwar Naqvi highlighted the region’s volatility due to India’s aggressive stance, emphasising the need for responsible statecraft, ongoing dialogue, and credible deterrence to maintain peace.

Mushahid Hussain Sayed, an ex-chair of the Senate’s foreign affairs panel, stressed the importance of intellectual debate in addressing these emerging security challenges.

Published in Dawn, May 12th, 2026