A shock Tory victory over North Sea oil carries threats of its own for Keir Starmer

All eyes were on Makerfield and Andy Burnham’s return to Westminster.

But a shock Tory win, 250 miles to the north, carries a warning of its own for Sir Keir Starmer.

The framing of the Aberdeen South by-election as a “referendum on oil and gas” meant the North Sea was front and centre of voters’ minds as they headed for the polls.

The historic victory by Tory MSP Douglas Lumsden that followed, said party leader Kemi Badenoch, sent a message “the sector will not be ignored”.

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Sir Keir’s Government has come under pressure to relax its stance on the North Sea, with industry experts warning the current approach is costing jobs and accelerating the basin’s decline.

Under Labour, no new licences can be issued, in line with its manifesto pledge.

The energy profits levy, or windfall tax, was introduced by the Tories, but it has been kept in place by Sir Keir’s administration.

Meanwhile, drilling has been halted at Rosebank, Britain’s largest untapped oil field, and Jackdaw, a gas field that could potentially be supplying homes by Christmas.

Both have been stalled by legal challenges, launched on climate grounds.

Energy Secretary Ed Miliband has the final say on whether work can resume.

Criticism of these policies has not come just from the right, but also from unions supporting offshore workers and from former prime minister, Sir Tony Blair.

All this meant when a by-election was triggered in Aberdeen – the "oil capital of Europe" - the Tories were gifted the perfect opportunity to seize on the mounting tension.

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Campaigning quickly focused on energy, and the result was the first Westminster by-election victory by the Scottish Conservatives for more than 50 years.

The Scottish National Party saw its vote fall from 15,213 in 2024 to just 8,258.

A party source suggested the defeat came because the party’s stance on oil and gas is seen as “weak”.

Unite, the trade union, made a similar diagnosis.

“The Aberdeen South result is a direct result of failed Labour policies on oil and gas, which have been an abject failure,” said general secretary Sharon Graham.

Aberdeen, of course, has a particular interest in the North Sea sector, and it would be unwise to assume this formula could be repeated across the country.

Likewise, Mr Miliband is not without his supporters.

Climate campaigners have applauded his North Sea position, saying it is a declining basin that cannot meet domestic demand, even if it were environmentally acceptable.

The Department for Energy Security and Net Zero has repeatedly stated more drilling would not lower bills – a claim backed up by Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency.

However, the Aberdeen South result has demonstrated the allure of the North Sea.

“What this means is that we have won that referendum on oil and gas,” Mrs Badenoch said.

Whoever might be leading the country following the Manchester mayor's parliamentary victory, difficult questions over the North Sea’s future will remain.

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