A ‘Godzilla’ El Niño is coming. Here’s how it could affect UK weather

A “Godzilla” El Niño, which raises global temperatures and supercharges extreme weather, is likely to emerge this summer, climate experts warn.

António Guterres, the UN secretary general, warned the upcoming weather pattern “will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world” and urged countries to prepare.

The impacts on the UK are less predictable than other parts of the world, but El Niño could increase the likelihood of higher temperatures this summer and into next year.

Several forecasters are predicting that this El Niño could be one of the strongest ever recorded, leading some to dub it a “super” or “Godzilla” event.

What is the ‘Godzilla’ El Niño?

Global weather patterns are heavily impacted by a naturally occurring transition between warm and cool weather patterns in the tropical pacific, known as El Niño and La Niña

The cooler phase, La Niña, has been dominant since December 2024. But the warmer phase, El Niño, is expected to emerge soon and last for nine to 12 months.

On Tuesday, the World Meteorological Organisation predicted an 80 per cent likelihood El Niño would emerge before August.

“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is,” Guterres said in a video statement.

There are clues that this upcoming El Niño could be a particularly strong event, leading some to brand it a “Godzilla” El Niño.

2024 is currently the world’s hottest year on record, which occurred during the last El Niño phase. Many of the warmest years on record have coincided with El Niño events.

What is the impact on the UK?

Due to the UK’s distance from the Pacific, the impact of an El Niño here is less predictable than in other parts of the world.

“El Niño takes place thousands of kilometres away from north‑west Europe, so its influence on UK weather is indirect. While there are sometimes links between El Niño events and European weather patterns, these are far from guaranteed,” the Met Office said.

Typically an El Niño brings warmer and drier conditions to the UK during summer. It also increases the likelihood of colder winters.

However, many other factors also influence the UK’s weather. Last summer is currently the UK’s hottest year on record, which occurred during a La Niña phase.

Temperature records have been broken this year as well. This past May bank holiday was the hottest bank holiday on record in the UK, with temperatures surpassing 34°C in London. The meter readings also broke the record for the hottest May day in the UK.

Beyond temperatures, Britons could also experience the impact of extreme weather such as through increased food prices.

What to know when booking your summer holiday

An element of uncertainty is already hanging over the summer holidays this year as jet fuel shortages lead many airlines to cancel flights and increase prices.

Holidaymakers may also want to consider the potential impact of El Niño when booking holidays for the rest of this year.

While the UK and Europe are among the parts of the world least impacted by El Niño, recent years have shown that extreme heat is a factor holidaymakers should still be considering, particularly when booking summer holidays in the Mediterranean.

Among the popular holiday destinations that are likely to be most impacted are South East Asia and Australia, which tend to be drier than normal during El Niño phases. This can lead to extreme weather events such as drought and forest fires.

On the other side of the Pacific, countries in South America can experience much wetter weather, resulting in flooding.