5 things to watch in Tuesday’s Illinois primaries

The Illinois primaries have seen gobs of spending, both in the highly watched Senate race and further down the ballot in competitive open House seats.

Groups affiliated with the American Israel Public Affairs Committee have poured millions of dollars into key contests, potential 2028er and Democratic Gov. JB Pritzker has found himself at odds with several prominent Black leaders in the state, and generational fights continue to plague the Democratic Party post-2024.

Here’s what POLITICO is watching today.

Can AIPAC avoid another fumble?

AIPAC faced backlash from moderate Democrats last month after inadvertently boosting a progressive candidate in New Jersey who said Israel has committed a genocide in Gaza. It's hoping not to make the same mistake again.

The group is facing a major test of its political muscle in Illinois as Democrats increasingly scrutinize Israel and AIPAC itself. It’s spending heavily in several House races, most notably in the contest to replace retiring Rep. Jan Schakowsky in the 9th district.

But Democratic strategists have warned that the group’s attacks on Evanston Mayor Daniel Biss — the grandson of a Holocaust survivor who has criticized Israel — have created a late opening for progressive insurgent Kat Abughazaleh, a Palestinian-American who’s an even more vocal critic, rather than effectively boosting the AIPAC-preferred candidate, state Sen. Laura Fine. AIPAC has made a sharp pivot in the final stretch of the campaign, turning its focus squarely on Abughazaleh instead.

“There’s been a strategy shift,” said a person directly familiar with AIPAC’s thinking, granted anonymity to discuss private conversations. “Our primary goal in Illinois is to prevent potential ‘Squad’ members from being elected to Congress.”

The big question for Tuesday will be whether that change in strategy happened too late to avoid another embarrassment for AIPAC.

Will JB’s involvement help or hurt him?

Pritzker has been vocally supporting, and heavily funding, Lt. Gov. Juliana Stratton’s campaign for Senate against Reps. Raja Krishnamoorthi and Robin Kelly. That move has rankled some prominent Black leaders.

“A sitting governor shouldn’t be heavy-handing the race,” Congressional Black Caucus Chair Yvette Clarke, whose caucus is supporting Kelly, told Punchbowl earlier this month. “Quite frankly, his behavior in this race won’t soon be forgotten.”

The worry from Black Democrats is that Kelly and Stratton — both Black women — could end up splitting the Black vote, with Pritzker's endorsement driving that wedge further. That may help Krishamoorthi win the race and kill their chances of electing a Black woman to the Senate this cycle.

Krishnamoorthi has led most public polls of the race and had a big cash advantage early on, allowing him to get up on TV earlier than his opponents. Pritzker’s money has helped Stratton close the gap, while Kelly sits in third in most public polls.

“People are conflicted as to whether or not they should go with the best candidate who they like, or do they go with what the polls are saying as the most viable candidate,” former Democratic Chicago Mayor Lori Lightfoot, who supports Kelly, said in an interview last week. “That’s the tension and the conflict that I’m hearing kind of across the board, but particularly among Black Illinoisans.”

What do all the races say about the future of the Democratic Party?

Both the Israel debate and racial tensions — as well as the growing generational divide in the Democratic Party — have dominated Illinois’ primary contests.

Tuesday’s results will be another early test, following Texas earlier this month, for where the party is headed as it still grapples with across-the-board losses to Republicans in 2024.

How do the outside influences fare?

More than $35 million has been poured into TV ads on Illinois races, according to AdImpact, with tech interests leading the way: pro-AI and pro-Crypto industry groups have combined to spend more than $15 million. It’s a dizzying sum that has shocked many veteran Illinois political strategists who are long accustomed to bruising campaigns.

Some candidates have openly courted — and practically begged for — support from these groups. Former Rep. Jesse Jackson Jr. — who is running to reclaim the IL-02 seat he once held — used AI in an ad to enhance former Rep. Bobby Rush’s voice (D-Ill.) after it was damaged from treatment he underwent to battle throat cancer.

The groups’ huge spending to get allies in Congress could shape the heated policy debate over how to regulate two fast-growing industries. How well their chosen candidates fare will help guide their future spending later this year.

Who turns out?

Turnout among Hispanic voters was a strong point for Democrats in the Texas primary, not to mention several special elections in recent months, driven by backlash to the Trump administration’s aggressive immigration enforcement along with continued economic uncertainty.

We will see whether that continues in Tuesday’s primaries, particularly in Chicagoland — which was shaken by a deportation blitz of its own last fall but where most of the primaries are for safe blue seats.

There’s also the question of turnout in primaries where support for Israel has been a major issue. A Senate primary should bring voters to the polls across the state, but POLITICO will be watching for how much higher turnout is in the 2nd, 7th, 8th and 9th districts to gauge how much Democrats’ intraparty disagreements about the issue — and the flood of outside money that has come with that — uniquely drives voting.

Alec Hernández and Jessica Piper contributed to this report.