2026 NBA playoffs first-round series odds: Celtics, Spurs favored for close-out wins

Jayson Tatum and the Celtics are heavily favored to close out the 76ers on Tuesday. Emilee Chinn / Getty Images Share article30The first team to advance is the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder finished off a sweep of Phoenix on Monday, the third first-round sweep in a row for OKC. On Tuesday, two more teams are heavily favored to join the Thunder in the second round. Boston and San Antonio return home after winning both games on the road. Both are favored by double digits in Game 5s. Plus, the New York Knicks are favored at home against the Atlanta Hawks in a tie-breaking Game 5. This is a look at the odds for all eight first-round series in the NBA playoffs. It will be updated daily throughout the playoffs, as the odds to win each series will shift with results. Series odds: Magic -215, Pistons +180 Even after trailing the series 2-1, the Pistons were still favored to advance. That is no longer the case after Orlando won at home again to take a 3-1 lead in the series. For the first time, the Magic are the team favored to move on. Detroit had a sloppy Game 4 with a whopping 20 turnovers in a 94-88 loss. Cade Cunningham had eight of those turnovers after having nine in Game 3 and seven in Game 2. Orlando is making life hard on the Pistons’ star guard and no one else has been picking up the slack for Detroit. Since the first round of the playoffs moved to best-of-seven series in 2003, only one No. 1 seed lost in the first round in five games: the 2023 Milwaukee Bucks. The Bucks lost to a Miami Heat team that went to the NBA Finals as a No. 8 seed. That is company Detroit does not want to join. The Pistons are big favorites (9.5 points) in Game 5 back in Detroit. Series odds: Celtics -10000, 76ers +2500 The Celtics have erased any concerns that arose from dropping Game 2 at home with two wins in Philadelphia. Sunday’s Game 4 win was incredibly dominant. Despite Joel Embiid’s return, Boston went up 16 points after the first quarter on a Payton Pritchard buzzer-beater 3-pointer and never looked back. The 128-96 win gives Boston a chance to close out the series at home. The Celtics are favored by 11.5 points for Tuesday’s Game 5. Boston fans can start thinking about the second round. Series odds: Knicks -220, Hawks +180 The Knicks were in such control of Game 4 in Atlanta, it seems odd they were down 2-1 in the series in the first place. New York cruised 114-98 in a near must-win on the road to even the series. With the win, the Knicks regained home-court advantage and turned the best-of-seven series into a best-of-three with two of those at Madison Square Garden. New York has been reinstalled as the favorite to advance after the Hawks were favored following Game 3. Karl-Anthony Towns had a triple-double (20 points, 10 rebounds, 10 assists) and the Hawks shot just 10-for-41 from 3-point range. The Knicks had their backs against the wall and played like their season depended on that win. Can Atlanta respond, or have the Knicks figured out how to beat this team? Game 5: 7:30 p.m. ET, Wednesday Series odds: Cavaliers -425, Raptors +330 With Toronto’s win in Game 4, this is the only series that has seen the home team win every game. Toronto somehow won despite shooting just 32 percent from the field and 4-for-30 (13 percent) from 3-point range. The Raptors were aided by 36 free throw attempts (making 27), 21 offensive rebounds and 17 Cleveland turnovers. The 93-89 score is more reminiscent of basketball from the 1990s or 2000s. Donovan Mitchell was just 6-for-24 in Game 4, and James Harden had seven turnovers. That paints an ugly picture for the Cavs, but a return home can fix what ails them. Despite the loss, Cleveland is still a solid favorite to win the series. Oklahoma City was mostly unbothered by Phoenix in a four-game sweep. The closest game was a 131-122 victory in Game 4. The defending champs were the favorites to win the NBA title entering the postseason and did nothing to change that. The Thunder earned a bit of a break and await two teams battling injuries in the Lakers and Rockets. Series odds: Spurs -10000, Trail Blazers +2500 Victor Wembanyama returned for the Spurs, and for a half, it looked like that wouldn’t matter. Portland was up 17 points at halftime and threatening to put pressure back on the Spurs to defend home court. Then the Spurs started the third quarter half on a 13-0 run and erased that lead before the end of the quarter. The Spurs led by as much as 20 in the fourth quarter, which is an incredible turnaround. San Antonio won 114-93. Wembanyama looked like Wemby with seven blocks and a number of comical dunks. De’Aaron Fox got hot late and led the Spurs with 28 points. With a 3-1 series lead, the Spurs are in virtual lock territory in the odds. San Antonio goes for its first series win since 2017 on Tuesday. Series odds: Nuggets -150, Timberwolves+125 Minnesota was down two starters and it looked like it for Monday’s Game 5. Denver won 125-113 in a game that wasn’t close for most of it. While the Timberwolves were without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo, the Nuggets also didn’t dress Aaron Gordon. With two days off in between Game 5 and Thursday’s Game 6, it’s possible Gordon will be able to play through his calf injury. Gordon suffered the injury in Game 2, missed Game 3 and played limited minutes in Game 4. Denver didn’t need him on Monday with Nikola Jokić fully taking control with 27 points, 16 assists and 12 rebounds. That’s a vintage Jokić stat line and the Nuggets will need more of that the rest of the series. Ayo Dosunmu fell back to earth with 18 points in a team-high 38 minutes after his 43-point masterpiece in Minneapolis. Dosunmu may have to go off again for Minnesota to find the fourth win in this series. Despite going on the road and still trailing in the series, Denver is favored to advance. Series odds: Lakers -1000, Rockets +650 The Lakers didn’t close out the Rockets on Sunday, which gives Houston some hope that it can come back on the still-shorthanded Lakers. Houston cruised in Game 4 in a 115-96 win and did so without Kevin Durant. Durant might not be able to return for Game 5, and it sounds like Luka Dončić will miss the rest of the series, but Austin Reaves could return at some point. The Lakers have three more chances to close out the series, and two of them at home. Reaves’ return would be a boost in a series that has become defined by injuries. The Lakers are favored by 2.5 points for Game 5. If Houston wins that one, things start to get really interesting for a 3-0 comeback. For now, Houston still has a lot of work to do. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms