2026 hurricane season will see below average tropical activity, NOAA says

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The decreased storm activity is driven by El Niño, which is forecast to emerge soon and persist through the season, the agency announced on Thursday. Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and continues through November 30. There is currently a 55% chance that this year's season will be below average, according to NOAA, with eight to 14 named storms, tropical storms and stronger expected for the season. An aerial view of Falmouth, Jamaica, Oct. 31, 2025, in the aftermath of Hurricane Melissa.Matias Delacroix/APThree to six hurricanes could occur, of which one to three could major storms with Category 3 intensity or stronger, NOAA said. NOAA’s hurricane outlooks predict overall seasonal activity, though levels of activity can vary throughout the six-month season. It does not predict how many storms will make landfall or specific locations where landfalls might occur. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season brought 13 named storms, just below the long-term seasonal average Residents walk through Santa Cruz, Jamaica, Oct. 29, 2025, after Hurricane Melissa passed.Matias Delacroix/AP PhotoWhile there were no landfalling hurricanes in the United States last year for the first time in a decade, the season still proved to be consequential, producing three Category 5 hurricanes, including Melissa, which devastated Jamaica. 24/7 coverage of breaking news and live events This year's Atlantic hurricane season will see below average tropical activity, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). The decreased storm activity is driven by El Niño, which is forecast to emerge soon and persist through the season, the agency announced on Thursday. Atlantic hurricane season starts on June 1 and continues through November 30. There is currently a 55% chance that this year's season will be below average, according to NOAA, with eight to 14 named storms, tropical storms and stronger expected for the season. Three to six hurricanes could occur, of which one to three could major storms with Category 3 intensity or stronger, NOAA said. NOAA’s hurricane outlooks predict overall seasonal activity, though levels of activity can vary throughout the six-month season. It does not predict how many storms will make landfall or specific locations where landfalls might occur. An average Atlantic hurricane season has 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes, according to NOAA. The 2025 Atlantic hurricane season brought 13 named storms, just below the long-term seasonal average While there were no landfalling hurricanes in the United States last year for the first time in a decade, the season still proved to be consequential, producing three Category 5 hurricanes, including Melissa, which devastated Jamaica.