World Bank develops roadmap to modernise wheat sector in Pakistan
• Move aims to stimulate private sector investment and redirect resources
• Paper says Pakistan must close its yield gap through better seed systems, balanced fertiliser use and efficient water management
• Calls for empowering farmers with small holdings through access to finance, aggregation
ISLAMABAD: The World Bank has developed a roadmap to modernise the wheat sector in Pakistan, recommending focused interventions in five priority areas that are aimed at stimulating private sector investment and redirect resources towards core public goods for greater returns, increased farmer incomes, and job creation.
The five targeted actions highlighted in a technical paper spelt out closing the productivity gap between Pakistan and other comparable wheat producers; increased investment in agricultural research and development; empowering the farmers with small holdings so that they can reach their full potential; improving institutional coordination and transparency to ensure market stability; and managing strategic grain reserves efficiently by moving away from large, costly storage facilities.
Titled ‘Wheat Sector Modernisation Roadmap’, the WB paper has been developed in response to the recognition that traditional policies such as minimum support prices have resulted in inefficiencies, high fiscal costs, and limited incentives for diversification and private sector growth. “The goal is to create a more productive, resilient, and market-driven wheat sector that better supports rural livelihoods, nutrition, and the broader economy,” the paper says.
It says the modernisation of Pakistan’s wheat sector requires a pivotal shift from decades of state-led interventions towards a more efficient, market-oriented system. While public procurement and fixed support prices historically achieved wheat self-sufficiency and affordable flour for consumers, these policies also distorted cropping patterns, discouraged diversification, and excluded farmers with small holdings.
Overemphasis on wheat has come at the expense of pulses, oilseeds, and other nutritious crops, leading to poor dietary diversity and persistent malnutrition. The discontinuation of public procurement in 2024 represents important structural reforms.
However, completing the transition to a deregulated market will require consistent policy direction, improved governance, and targeted investment in productivity-enhancing measures.
Yield gap
To achieve this, the paper says, Pakistan must close its yield gap through better seed systems, balanced fertiliser use, and efficient water management, while redirecting subsidies towards agricultural research and development as well as innovation.
“Empowering farmers with small holdings through access to finance, aggregation, and digital advisory services will be essential for inclusive growth,” it adds.
Strengthening the wheat market information system, enhancing interprovincial coordination, and maintaining strategic grain reserves only for emergency use will help stabilise prices and build market confidence.
“A modernised, transparent, and competitive wheat sector, supported by public-private partnerships in research, storage, and value chains will not only ensure food security but also drive rural incomes, job creation, and long-term agricultural transformation in Pakistan,” the paper claims.
It observes that there is overconsumption of wheat but under-consumption of other nutritious items in the diet of an average Pakistani. At the same time, limited dietary diversity contributed to persistent levels of malnutrition and stunting in the country. Wheat flour on average contributes over 40-50 per cent of the daily caloric requirement but has only 13pc share in the food expenditure basket of average household.
The report says systemic inefficiencies in seed quality and availability, fertiliser management practices and fertiliser-use efficiency and water productivity are found to be key factors contributing to productivity gap.
“While wheat productivity in the country has increased in the last decades, average wheat yield is still far below its comparable competitors,” the paper says. The average wheat yield in Pakistan is 50pc lower than Egypt, 25pc lower than Ukraine, 10pc lower than India and around 35pc lower than Indian state of Punjab.
The actual versus potential wheat yields indicate a substantial productivity gap. The average yield of 3,200kg per hectare also remains 60pc lower than the yield potential of improved varieties of around 7,500kg per hectare, which some progressive farmers have been able to achieve in selected areas.
The seed supply system is largely informal and faces several challenges. Key challenges include cumbersome certification and registration processes, strict and costly import regulations, and the widespread availability of low-quality seed. These constraints limit access to certified, high-performing varieties and slow down innovation. Only 38pc of the seed is supplied through the formal sector while remainder comes from informal sources, mainly farm-saved seed.
Published in Dawn, March 31st, 2026
