Will the Championship deliver final-day drama? There is so much still at stake

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Going into the 46th and final round of matches in a hard-fought campaign, those two clubs from either side of the Yorkshire-Lancashire border were already Premier League-bound, promotion having been clinched a little under a fortnight earlier on Easter Monday. But that still left the less-than-trifling matter of the second tier’s title to settle, as the teams were locked together on 97 points with one game still to play. It took until stoppage time of those fixtures to decide the destination of the trophy, Manor Solomon netting a last-gasp winner for Leeds away to relegated Plymouth Argyle just as an almighty party was getting into full swing at Turf Moor after Burnley had beaten Millwall. Will we see a similar level of drama tomorrow (Saturday), as the 2025-26 Championship reaches a climax with no less than three clubs vying to join Coventry City in winning automatic promotion into next season’s top flight and another three hoping to claim the fourth and final play-offs place? Surely few would bet against it, especially after so many twists and turns already in a competition that continues to delight in delivering the unexpected. Until late on Tuesday night, a four-team final-day shootout for automatic promotion looked to be on the cards. Southampton had come from behind against visitors Ipswich Town to lead 2-1, meaning the live table showed both Ipswich and Millwall on 80 points, with Middlesbrough and Southampton both on 79. Coventry had clinched the title a week previously. However, hopes of capping a quite remarkable fightback from a dreadful start to the campaign — Southampton were 21st in the 24-team table in November and still in its bottom half as recently as the first week of February — with the ultimate prize of a passport back to the Premier League were to be dashed, at least via the automatic route. Not only did a precious 87th-minute equaliser by Jack Clarke ensure it was advantage Ipswich in the race for second place but, by denying the hosts the victory required to stay within touching distance of the top two, it also took Southampton out of the automatic-promotion equation. As it stands, Kieran McKenna’s side have 81 points, Millwall 80 and Middlesbrough 79. Ipswich also boast a significantly superior goal difference of +30, compared to Millwall (+13) and Middlesbrough (+25). In terms of the play-offs, Wrexham, Hull City and Derby County are all bidding for the spot still up for grabs. Again, it’s going to be close with Wrexham and Hull on 70 points and Derby one behind. So close, in fact, that it might even come down to how results between these teams panned out during the regular season. Ipswich host Queens Park Rangers at Portman Road, where they have lost just once all season. Millwall also have home advantage, against already-relegated Oxford United, while Middlesbrough are off to Wrexham for a fixture with big ramifications for both the automatic promotion race and the play-offs. Hull and Derby, the other two clubs vying for sixth place, are visited by Norwich City and Sheffield United respectively, while fifth-placed Southampton, who can no longer go up automatically but could secure home advantage for the second leg of their upcoming play-off semi-final with a top-four finish, travel to Preston North End. Clarke’s late equaliser against Southampton in midweek makes Ipswich’s task very simple, at least on paper. Win, and second place is theirs. Should they fail to do that, however, the door will be left ajar for Millwall or Middlesbrough to charge through into the Premier League instead. Millwall must win to capitalise on any points dropped by Ipswich, thanks to that vastly inferior goal difference, while Middlesbrough’s hopes of gatecrashing the top two are also dependent on securing all three points. If they can beat Wrexham, an Ipswich loss and Millwall failing to win would be enough to promote Kim Hellberg’s side. A draw for Ipswich, meanwhile, could mathematically still let in Middlesbrough if Millwall also draw or lose, but they would need to make up the five-goal advantage currently enjoyed by McKenna’s men. As for the play-offs, things are slightly more complicated. Wrexham will finish sixth if they better Hull’s result and better or match how Derby get on. If they match Hull’s result, it will go down to goal difference. If that also finishes level — and with Wrexham currently on plus-four to Hull’s plus-three, there’s every chance — then goals scored will be the deciding factor. If this is equal too — and, again, it is very possible as Wrexham and Hull are just one goal apart (67 and 68 respectively) with a game to play — how the teams fared against each other during the season comes into play. It’s here that the Yorkshire club potentially hold the trump card, via a 2-0 home win in December that was followed by a 2-1 victory in March’s reverse fixture. Derby’s hopes, meanwhile, rest on both Wrexham and Hull failing to take all three points. In that case, victory over Sheffield United at Pride Park would be enough for them to leapfrog their two rivals into sixth. They could also get in with a draw, but only if both Hull and Wrexham lose. Ipswich are odds-on favourites to finish second, the bookmakers clearly expecting home advantage against 14th-placed QPR — only champions Coventry can better their 47 points from 22 games on their own patch in this season’s Championship — to tell on the final day. So, too, does Opta’s supercomputer, which all season has been running 10,000 simulations of how things will turn out using all manner of variables, including the quality of a team’s performances, fixtures, historical results and Opta’s own power rankings. After crunching all those numbers one last time, it has Ipswich finishing on average a point better off than Millwall, which is the gap between the two with a game to play. Middlesbrough are predicted to finish fourth, a little under three points behind Ipswich, according to an average of those 10,000 simulations. As for the play-offs, Opta has this week moved from Wrexham and Hull finishing dead level on an average of 71.45 points to the latter prevailing by just 0.02 of a point, with Derby less than a point behind on 70.66. The bookmakers, too, consider the race for sixth as hard to call, with Hull and Wrexham tipped to come out on top, depending on the firm. Good point. Little can be discounted in this division, as Leicester City’s relegation to the third tier, just one year after dropping out of the Premier League, proves. That said, recent history is on Ipswich’s side, with no team to start the final day of a Championship season outside the top two having won automatic promotion since the second tier rebranded in 2004-05, according to Opta. There has still been plenty of drama, such as in 2013 when Hull went up in second despite missing a penalty and then conceding a last-minute equaliser at home to Cardiff City, Watford’s home defeat by Leeds eventually saving the blushes of spot-kick taker Nick Proschwitz. There has been considerably more final-day movement in the play-off places over the same period, with six clubs who were outside the top six as the final round of games kicked off going on to qualify, Sunderland being the most recent example in 2022-23. Of that half dozen, Leicester in 2012-13 jumped from eighth to sixth, and Brentford from seventh to fifth a couple of years later. Preston (2008-09), Brighton & Hove Albion (2013-14) and Swansea City (2019-20) complete the list of gate-crashers. With the division’s three relegation places already decided — Sheffield Wednesday, Leicester and Oxford are down — all eyes will be on whether there are any twists to come at the top end of the table. We’ll soon find out as all games kick off at 12.30pm UK time on Saturday, with fans — and those following the action at home or in the pub — perhaps wise to strap themselves in for another rollercoaster final day in the most unpredictable league around. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms