Why Everton will play a key role in deciding the Premier League table

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How much do Spurs have to fear on the final day of the season? And what of Everton’s own European dreams? The Athletic takes a look at what to expect from their run-in. Let’s start with the battle for the Premier League title. Six points separate leaders Arsenal and Manchester City, Everton’s opponents on Monday night, after Mikel Arteta’s men beat Fulham on Saturday. City have two games in hand on their title rivals, but that result means the pressure will be on Pep Guardiola’s men to win at Hill Dickinson Stadium and keep pace. City have some tough games left. They face a trip to in-form Bournemouth on the penultimate weekend and finish against Aston Villa at the Etihad Stadium. Monday’s outing should be another test of their credentials. Everton are four points behind Brentford in seventh, five off sixth-placed Bournemouth, and have European aspirations of their own. Their trip to Tottenham Hotspur on the final day could have implications for their own hopes of continental football next season and the relegation battle, with Spurs one point above the drop zone after their 2-1 win against Aston Villa. The table below shows how Opta rates the toughness of each team’s fixtures. Everton’s season has been positive, but has not been without its bumps. They have been resurgent since Moyes’ return as manager in January 2025, finishing last season strongly and targeting a European place this time out. That always seemed like a stretch for a squad undergoing a major overhaul — one that is expected to take a further two summer windows to be completed — but with four games to go, they still have a chance. Everton’s form has faltered in recent weeks. When they beat Chelsea 3-0 before the last international break, the wind seemed to be in their sails. But since then, they have drawn once and lost twice, conceding stoppage-time winners against Liverpool and West Ham United. Before the start of the season, Europe would have been seen by many associated with Everton as a bonus. But now, missing out on qualification would likely be deemed a disappointment by sections of the fanbase. Heading into matchweek 35, Everton had conceded the third-fewest goals in the league (41 in 34 games). That should come as little surprise — Moyes’ teams are renowned for their defensive solidity and he inherited a strong back line from his predecessor, Sean Dyche. Goalkeeper Jordan Pickford was third in the league for ‘goals prevented’, a metric that compares how many goals a goalkeeper actually conceded against the number they were expected to. But that also shows how reliant Everton have been on the 32-year-old this season. Their expected goals against is 50.5 (the seventh-highest in the league heading into this matchweek), versus an actual goals conceded tally of 41, and there is a sense their inability to stop sides fashioning quality chances has finally caught up with them. Everton have some defined strengths elsewhere. With four goals in his last four games, Beto was one of the league’s form strikers before sustaining a concussion in the Merseyside derby. He has returned to training this week after missing the West Ham defeat. Midfielder James Garner has developed into a ball-winning machine, earning his first England cap against Uruguay in March. He led the league in tackles attempted and interceptions going into this gameweek and boasted a 62 per cent ground duel success rate, the best of any player in the top 20 for attempted duels. Forward Iliman Ndiaye is one of the league’s best dribblers, while midfielder Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall has eight goals and four assists since joining from Chelsea for an initial £25million ($34m at current exchange rates) fee last summer. Dewsbury-Hall’s movement — particularly his off-the-ball runs in the inside-left channel — is superb (as illustrated below) and he is usually a composed presence in the final third. Only Brighton & Hove Albion and Manchester City had made more high regains (winning the ball 40 metres from the opposition goal) than Everton going into this weekend, but Moyes’ side ranked 18th for the percentage ending in shots, highlighting a lack of consistent end product beyond Dewsbury-Hall and Ndiaye. Everton have shown a vulnerability from inswinging corners of late. In their last two games, they conceded similar goals — to Liverpool’s Virgil van Dijk and West Ham’s Tomas Soucek — inside the six-yard box, something Moyes described as “very concerning”. Everton’s 3.3 goals conceded per 100 set pieces was actually the sixth-best in the league going into this gameweek, but there is a sense that teams are targeting Pickford. Analysis from Sky Sports’ Monday Night Football has found Everton have the most packed six-yard box from defensive set pieces. Tottenham, Newcastle and Brentford have all had success in this area against Moyes’ side. Despite the height in their back line, they had also conceded the joint-sixth-most goals from open-play crosses before this weekend. Everton missed Beto, a dominant presence at the near post, late in the derby and against West Ham, while centre-back Jarrad Branthwaite’s season-ending hamstring injury, also sustained against Liverpool, was another blow. Branthwaite is seen as a key player due to his recovery pace and ball-playing ability. He averages 8.5 line-breaking passes, compared to fellow defenders James Tarkowski’s five and Michael Keane’s 4.3, and will be a big miss in the remaining games. Everton’s record at their new Hill Dickinson Stadium has been patchy. They are 14th in the league for home form, but have already surpassed their 2023-24 points haul at old home Goodison Park and are two off last year’s total with two games to play. Moyes has been keen to get the squad more acclimatised to their new surroundings, and they trained there on Friday. Any of the UEFA competitions would be a major boost for a club that has endured its fair share of hardship — relegation battles, financial turmoil, and more — in recent years. An already-flawed squad would need more additions to cope with the extra games. But the hope is that it would allow them to attract a better calibre of player after a summer in which they missed out on top targets, such as Chelsea striker Liam Delap and Juventus winger Francisco Conceicao. Qualification would help financially after an £8.6m loss last season. That number would have been £49m higher but for the sales of their women’s team and Goodison Park to Roundhouse Capital, the vehicle through which The Friedkin Group owns the club. Achieving compliance with UEFA’s financial rules would bring another challenge, as The Athletic’s football finance expert Chris Weatherspoon explained in March. Yet Europe remains a key goal for Moyes and his side and one of the many reasons why Everton’s run-in carries particular intrigue for them and sides either end of the table. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms