Was Marcus Foligno right? Stars need to figure out how to 'hang' with Wild at 5-on-5

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The poor equipment manager was struggling with the unwieldy block. He couldn’t get a level base on which to place it, and as a result, it kept tilting and the lid wouldn’t close all the way. Finally, a second staffer laid a towel over the jerseys, tamped it down a little more, and the two of them carefully slid the slab on top, the two metal latches closing without any effort. Yes, even the Dallas Stars’ equipment staff needs a man advantage these days. Everything the Stars said in the wake of Saturday’s breathless 3-2 loss to the Minnesota Wild in Game 4 — a gut-check win for the Wild, a gut-punch loss for the Stars — was true. As Mikko Rantanen said, this is a well-seasoned team that’s been in this situation before, a best-of-seven reduced to a best-of-three, with a critical Game 5 looming in Dallas on Tuesday. The Stars are not about to panic. As Jason Robertson said, they had plenty of chances and plenty of shots on goal — 45 shots ought to do it most nights. They’re doing plenty of things right. And as coach Glen Gulutzan said, the Stars haven’t gotten the same kind of “puck luck” this series that the Wild have, with Marcus Foligno’s wonky equalizer with 5:20 left in the third period the latest example. They’re playing pretty well. But then there’s Miro Heiskanen. Asked if the Stars have become too power-play dependent, the dynamic defensemen demurred. “I think we played well five-on-five,” he said. “Just didn’t score. Keep playing the same way. Goals will come at some point. I think it’s fine.” None of that is true. Well, not true enough, at least. Not in the Stanley Cup playoffs. Not against a team as good as the Wild. The underlying metrics will tell you that the Stars have played the Wild to a virtual standstill at five-on-five in this series — Dallas with an expected goals share of 50.45 percent, Minnesota at 49.55. Heck, according to Natural Stat Trick, the Stars have out-chanced the Wild 92-69, with 35-28 edge in high-danger chances. But the eye test tells a different story. The Stars are not getting to the net. Not at five-on-five. Not the way they are on the power play, where Robertson, Rantanen, Heiskanen, Matt Duchene and Wyatt Johnston are simply toying with the Wild penalty killers, scoring eight times on 19 opportunities. Those 92 scoring chances at five-on-five? Dallas has scored on two of them. Those 35 high-danger chances? Dallas has scored on one of them. The last 147 minutes and 53 seconds of the series have passed without the Stars scoring an even-strength goal. “It’s almost the blue paint wars,” Gulultzan said. “If you can get in there and find some pucks and get some sticks on things and win some battles when it’s that contested, it’s really hand-to-hand combat in the blue paint on both sides.” Minnesota is winning that battle. Witness Foligno clambering over Jake Oettinger as the puck rolled up the goalie’s spine and into the net. Or damn near the entire overtime period, as Oettinger fended off shot after shot, the 11th one finally getting past as Matt Boldy won a puck battle in the corner, went straight to the top of the blue paint, and deflected in a Jared Spurgeon shot for the game-winner. Yes, Dallas had its chances in overtime, with Jesper Wallstedt turning aside big blasts from Tyler Myers and Mavrik Bourque in succession, and then denying Arttu Hyry three times. But those shots were from the outside. Wallstedt had time to see them, to anticipate them, to react to them. Minnesota was in Oettinger’s kitchen all day. Dallas was on Wallstedt’s front lawn, throwing rocks at the window. “I think (our) guys could all agree they had a bunch of scoring opportunities,” Robertson said. “They’re doing a good job pushing us out for some of those shots, but I definitely think the volume was there today. Hopefully, it goes in next time.” Hope isn’t a strategy. Going harder to the net is. Nowhere was the difference between Dallas’ puck domination and Minnesota’s puck domination more stark than in the second period. After spending the first 100 seconds of the period hemmed in their own end, the Stars seized control of the puck and refused to let it go. For a whopping 5 minutes and 29 seconds, through so many line changes that Hyry’s trio got out there twice, Dallas held the puck in the Wild zone. Minnesota’s top pairing of Quinn Hughes and Brock Faber were on the ice and defending for an exhausting 3:13. It was almost comical. Dallas put eight pucks on Wallstedt in that 5:29. But here’s how far each shot traveled: 49 feet, 10 feet (a Radek Faksa deflection), 53 feet, 27 feet, 12 feet, 44 feet, 19 feet and 47 feet. It was a Corsi bonanza, but as much as Dallas controlled play, Wallstedt wasn’t terribly tested. It’s not a massive difference, as the underlying metrics attest. But it’s enough. Minnesota’s Grade-As just look — just feel — more dangerous than Dallas’. Foligno might have been overselling it when he said earlier in the series that Dallas “can’t hang” with Minnesota at five-on-five, but he wasn’t talking out of his backside, either. The fact is that Minnesota is outscoring Dallas by a whopping 11-3 margin at evens. If the Stars want to set up the dream second-round showdown with the Colorado Avalanche that so many in the hockey world want to see — the clear two best teams in the NHL during the regular season — they’re going to have to figure out a way to translate their power-play success into five-on-five success. And if they want to finally get to the Stanley Cup Final after three straight losses in the conference final, a red-hot power play won’t be enough. Because history, and the law of averages, suggest it won’t stay red hot forever. It’s a myth that power plays start drying up in later rounds. According to NHL stats, over the past 10 postseasons, there have been 6.5 power plays per game in the first round, 6.0 in the second, 5.8 in the third, and 6.0 in the Final. But it’s human nature that power plays do start drying up later within rounds, as officials try not to exert undue influence on such massive games as a Game 5, a Game 6, or a Game 7. So go to the net. Make Wallstedt’s life more difficult. Robertson has a sixth sense for where rebounds will go on the power play. He has to apply that at five-on-five. Johnston is a master tip artist. He has to get to the top of the crease more at five-on-five. Mikko Rantanen is arguably the best power forward in the NHL. He has to at least be the best “Moose” in this series, with Foligno winning the nickname battle in Game 4. Naturally, it’s easier said than done to get to the net. As hapless as they are on the penalty kill, the Wild are doing an excellent job of keeping the Stars on the perimeter at five-on-five. It’s not just their two elite defensemen, either. Minnesota is playing a better team game, working better as a five-man unit. They’re more in sync defensively, and that’s allowing them to generate more in transition offensively. The most alarming thing for Dallas is that this isn’t a new issue. As dominant as the Stars were at five-on-five in the regular season — outscoring opponents 170-138 — they were outscored 35-25 in 18 playoff games last year, again greatly underperforming their underlying metrics. They should be better than this. But they haven’t been. Not when the games matter the most. Of course, had Foligno’s chip not found its way over and past Oettinger, we’d be focusing more on that brilliant power play, about how the Stars were one game from advancing, about how Robertson is crushing it in the postseason with goals in seven straight games, about how Duchene is working magic around the net and about how Oettinger has stood tall in the face of the Wild onslaught. So the Stars aren’t worried. “Pretty familiar,” Rantanen said of playing in another harrowing series coming down to the wire. That’s good. That’s healthy. That’s Dallas’ biggest edge on Minnesota — experience, level-headedness, a mental toughness earned over the years. But it’s incumbent on them not to let that slip into complacency. “Keep paying the same way,” isn’t the answer. “I think it’s fine,” isn’t the attitude. The Stars have a weakness right now, one that’s tangible and can be addressed, difficult though it may be. With two more days off before Game 5, you can be sure Gulutzan will zero in on it, and you can be sure Monday’s practice will focus on it. Get to the blue paint, wreak havoc. Rinse and repeat. “We’ve just got to try to put the puck in the back of the net,” Rantanen said. Good thought. But waiting for the refs to save them isn’t going to cut it. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms