Warning of record global temperatures as chance of very strong El Niño grows

Warning of record global temperatures as chance of very strong El Niño growsImage source, GettyBySimon King Lead Weather PresenterPublished16 minutes agoCommentsNew forecasts show increasing confidence that the developing El Niño in the tropical Pacific Ocean could be one of the strongest on record with warnings of record global temperatures and huge humanitarian impacts.Parts of the Pacific have been warming rapidly with data this week showing sea surface temperatures around 0.5C above normal - one threshold used to suggest the onset of El Niño, a natural warming of the Pacific.It is expected to strengthen over the next few months, peaking potentially as a very strong - or so-called super El Niño - in the autumn.Scientists are concerned about the consequences it could have on global weather patterns, including the likelihood of 2027 being the warmest year on record.In their latest outlook, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggest El Niño will begin within the month.They have increased the confidence to a two-in-three chance that it will be strong or even very strong by this winter.The rate of warming seen in the tropical Pacific over the last few weeks has been rapid.Nathanial Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA described it as a "rare occurrence" should it continue at the current pace - going from the La Niña (a similar cooling pattern) we saw in winter to a potentially strong El Niño, within a year.The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Australia also forecasts El Niño using a slightly stricter criteria where sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific must exceed 0.8C above average.They also look for indications that the trade winds in the western Pacific have reversed; signalling that the warming ocean is beginning to influence the atmosphere.Spring forecasts of El Niño have historically been quite poor, but forecasters have been much more confident than normal this year.Image source, BBC WeatherImage caption, Graph shows...