War on Iran could trigger global famine – charity founder

Disruption of fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz could slash harvests, Jose Andres of World Central Kitchen has warned

Disruptions to fertilizer supplies caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran risk triggering a multi-year food crisis globally, World Central Kitchen (WCK) founder Jose Andres has warned. 

Tensions around the Strait of Hormuz have already driven up energy prices and rattled the global economy, disrupting one of the world’s most important trade arteries. The route handles around 20% of global crude exports, but it is also critical for shipments of nitrogen-based fertilizers. 

Speaking to The Guardian on Thursday, Andres said delays in fertilizer deliveries risk missing critical planting windows, reducing yields in subsequent harvests and fueling a chain reaction of lower output and higher food prices. 

“It is not only oil that leaves through the Strait of Hormuz. I foresee a very big increase in famine across the world by the fall of 2026 and 2027,” he said, warning that shipping turmoil in and around Hormuz is already tightening fertilizer supplies and pushing up costs for farmers.  

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The conflict has also led to reported shutdowns of fertilizer plants across the Gulf, further straining supply. Nitrogen fertilizers account for the majority of global use and underpin roughly half of the world’s food production. With the Gulf acting as a key export hub, disruptions to maritime routes have intensified shortages during the peak planting season. 

Andres warned that poorer nations would bear the brunt. “In places like Haiti, they don’t serve you a kilo of rice, they serve you one ounce at a time. Those people are going to be suffering the consequences,” he said, suggesting governments allocate a small share of national budgets toward food security. 

A UN Development Program report estimates that up to 32 million people could be pushed into poverty across 162 countries due to the Middle East war’s wider economic impact, with import-dependent nations facing the greatest strain. The heaviest burden is expected in parts of Asia, Sub-Saharan Africa, and small island states.