US and Iran need to drop their maximalist demands

Iranian and American positions may have been far apart during the post-ceasefire talks in Islamabad. However, it appears that both sides are seeking a way out of the impasse. US President Donald Trump has hinted at another round of talks in the coming days, while Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said his country is not seeking war but dialogue. Clearly, the space for diplomacy has not disappeared. But the problem is not only the trust deficit; it is also that neither side wants to appear “weak” before its domestic audience. This is evident in Trump’s naval blockade, under which the US Navy is interdicting ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. Vessels calling at non-Iranian ports are allowed to proceed — assuming Iran, which has closed the Strait of Hormuz to “enemy ships”, permits their passage. The message behind the blockade is that if other nations cannot export through the strait, neither can Iran. Such a move targets Tehran’s war chest — its oil exports and revenues have surged during the conflict — to force it to accept a deal. Years of harsh sanctions, however, suggest that Iran has a high tolerance for economic pain. Tehran, for its part, has warned that it will disrupt trade across the Persian Gulf, the Sea of Oman, and the Red Sea.  Each side is waiting for the other to blink first. Finding a diplomatic solution to the three core issues — Iran’s nuclear programme, the Strait of Hormuz, and the future of Tehran’s regional proxies — will be difficult, but not impossible. Negotiating the 2015 nuclear deal between the US and Iran took nearly 20 months. Any agreement will require both sides to set aside maximalist demands. The exclusion of Lebanon from the ceasefire remains a sticking point, though the first direct talks in 33 years between Israel and the Lebanese government offer a measure of hope. On the nuclear programme, the US in Islamabad proposed a 20-year suspension of uranium enrichment, while Iran suggested five. On this, as on Hormuz and other issues, compromise will be essential. For diplomacy to stand a chance, both sides must maintain the ceasefire and refrain from escalating their competing blockades.