Ukraine And Iran Wars Show How Important Objective Analysis Can Be

BusinessAerospace & DefenseUkraine And Iran Wars Show How Important Objective Analysis Can BeByMichael P. Dempsey,Contributor.Forbes contributors publish independent expert analyses and insights. Dempsey is a senior advisor at The Eurasia Group,Follow AuthorMay 07, 2026, 04:19pm EDT--:-- / --:--This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.This voice experience is generated by AI. Learn more.PALM BEACH, FLORIDA - FEBRUARY 28: (EDITOR'S NOTE: This handout image was provided by a third-party organization and may not adhere to Getty Images' editorial policy) U.S. President Donald Trump (L) speaks to White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles as he oversees "Operation Epic Fury" at Mar-a-Lago on February 28, 2026 in Palm Beach, Florida. President Trump announced today that the United States and Israel had launched strikes on Iran targeting political and military leaders, as well as Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear programs. (Photo by Daniel Torok/White House via Getty Images)White House via Getty ImagesThere is no single leadership trait or process that guarantees effective decision-making in either government or business, but there is one characteristic that almost certainly produces failure—a leader’s refusal to consider objective analysis, especially when it runs counter to their desired outcome. Indeed, from the most complex national security matters to major questions confronting C-suite executives, leaders who are unwilling to consider countervailing conclusions have historically run into tragic policy results. Here are a few recent examples that I believe are worthy of close consideration. Putin Rushes To War In Ukraine First, consider the run-up to Putin’s invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022. During a widely televised security council meeting on the eve of Russia’s attack, Putin famously humiliated his intelligence chief, Sergey Naryshkin, for daring to suggest that Moscow might want to move more slowly in recognizing the ind...