UAE-bound travel demand surges as schools reopen

Dubai: UAE travel agents report a surge in inbound travel demand over the next two weeks as schools reopen, with thousands of residents returning after weeks of disruption caused by regional tensions and flight cancellations.

The rebound comes after a volatile period for the aviation sector, during which US-Israel-Iran conflict-linked airspace closures, rerouting and reduced airline capacity had slowed travel flows into and out of the UAE since late March.

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“This week and the next, we are seeing strong traffic into the UAE,” said TP Sudheesh, General Manager at Deira Travels. “People are hopeful that more fighting won’t continue and that the ceasefire will hold. With schools reopening, bookings have picked up significantly.”

He added that a backlog of travellers who were unable to return earlier is now driving the surge.

“A lot of people who were meant to come back between late March and early April are now returning in large numbers,” Sudheesh said. “Families who travelled home when schools went online are coming back, including workers like bus drivers who had taken a break. In the next week, there will be a huge incoming rush.”

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Supply still struggling to catch up

While demand is rebounding quickly, airline capacity remains constrained, keeping fares elevated and limiting options for travellers.

“Demand is strong, but supply hasn’t fully come back yet,” said Raheesh Babu, COO of Musafir.com. “For example, IndiGo was operating around 40 daily flights earlier, but that dropped to about 11. It is now gradually increasing, but recovery is slow.”

He noted that airlines are reopening routes in phases, with more capacity expected from early May.

“Turkish and European carriers are likely to resume more services around early May, with fuller capacity by May 5,” Babu said. “UAE carriers like Emirates and Air Arabia are also scaling up operations.”

However, limited seat availability is pushing up ticket prices.

“Fares are still high, starting from around Dh2,000 and above on many routes,” he said. “There is no choice but to book early given the limited availability.”

Airlines rebuild networks cautiously

The aviation sector has been navigating disruptions caused by the regional conflict, which led to partial airspace closures and forced airlines to reroute flights, increasing costs and reducing frequencies.

Even as tensions ease intermittently, the recovery remains uneven.

Safeer Mahmood, General Manager of Smart Travel Group, said, “We cannot say that normal travel has fully resumed yet, but we are seeing demand grow consistently.”

“Airlines are operating a good number of flights, especially UAE-based carriers,” Mahmood said. “Air Arabia announcing services to destinations like Baku, Almaty, Tbilisi, Tashkent and Yerevan from May 1 shows that leisure travel is gradually returning.”

Leisure demand builds

Alongside inbound travel, agents are also seeing a steady return of outbound leisure demand, particularly for short-haul destinations.

“There has been strong interest in leisure travel around Eid, with packages in the range of 100 to 150 bookings for destinations like Georgia and Baku,” Babu said, adding that more routes are expected to reopen by the end of May.

At the same time, airlines are increasingly relying on alternative flight paths and special corridors to maintain operations.

“UAE carriers are operating most of their flights through adjusted routes as some airspaces remain restricted,” Sudheesh said. “This is leading to limited operations overall and a continuing supply challenge.”

Outlook: busy weeks ahead

Travel agents expect the next two weeks to remain busy as pent-up demand plays out and more residents return to the UAE ahead of the new school term.

“Inbound demand will stay strong through mid-May,” Babu said. “The last two to three weeks have already been busy, and that trend is continuing.”

For now, the sector is balancing a sharp rebound in demand with a slower return of airline capacity — a dynamic that is likely to define travel patterns in the UAE in the weeks ahead.

Middle East carriers are facing the sharpest pressures as geopolitical instability, fuel volatility and airspace constraints redraw the sector’s recovery map.

For passengers and airlines alike, the coming months are expected to bring a more fragile operating environment - not because demand has collapsed, but because the infrastructure that supports global air travel is under strain.