The Alternative Premier League Table: No 36 – Big chance conversion

AFC BournemouthArsenalAston VillaBrentfordBrighton & Hove AlbionBurnleyChelseaCrystal PalaceEvertonFulhamLeeds UnitedLiverpoolManchester CityManchester UnitedNewcastle UnitedNottingham ForestSunderlandTottenham HotspurWest Ham UnitedWolverhampton WanderersScores & ScheduleStandingsFantasyThe Athletic FC NewsletterPodcasts Design: Eamonn Dalton/The Athletic; Photo: Getty Images Share articleWelcome to the latest edition of The Alternative Premier League Table, where each week, The Athletic analyses the entire division through a specific lens. Matchday 35 saw teams across the Premier League score 23 of their 46 big chances. That 50 per cent conversion rate is the third best of the season after Matchday 5 (59 per cent) and 20 (55 per cent). Opta defines a big chance as ‘a situation where a player should reasonably be expected to score, usually a one-on-one scenario or a shot from close range with a clear path to goal and low-to-moderate pressure’. So, in this week’s table, we compare how teams fared when it comes to creating and converting big chances across the first 18 games to the last 17, roughly a first half versus second half of the season. Key takeaways include: !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-XyCLL']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r As usual, the article that follows is long but detailed, so please settle down and enjoy it all — or use the index at the bottom of the page to jump to a specific club. Brentford are major proponents of creating the best shooting opportunities possible, with a league-high 76 per cent of their shots coming from inside the penalty box. That partly explains why they rank near the top for big chances despite averaging just 48 per cent possession. The chief difference between the first and second halves of the season have not been volume but in conversion. Brentford’s conversion rate has dipped from 46 per cent to 33, which has played a part in them drawing seven of their last 18 games compared to just two of the first 19. Kevin Schade and Dango Ouattara converted eight of their 18 big chances in the first half of the season but have scored just two of their 17 since. The duo combined for this Schade miss against Burnley in February too. Burnley ranked 15th for big chances across the first 18 games at 1.6 per 90 but led the league in conversion rate at 52 per cent. Zian Flemming, Lesley Ugochukwu and Jaidon Anthony scored 10 of their 15 big chances in that stretch. Over the last 17 games, Flemming has scored four of his seven, but Anthony has missed both of his and Ugochukwu has not had one. Burnley’s overall creativity has dropped to 20th with 1.2 big chances per 90, while their conversion rate of 29 per cent ranks third from bottom. It took its course, but Everton’s strikers have found their footing. Thierno Barry and Beto have scored 12 of their 19 big chances across the last 17 games after converting just two of 14 in the first 18. One of the changes that have favoured both players and those behind them has been Everton’s improvement on the break. Over the first 18 games, their 0.05xG per 90 from fast breaks ranked 19th. That has tripled to 0.15xG per 90 over the last 17 matches, ranking seventh. Forest’s relegation fears have been quelled largely due to discovering the finishing streak that saw them overperform their expected goals figure by a league-high 11.4 (58 goals from 46.6xG) in 2024-25. Over the first 18 games, they converted 38 per cent of their 1.6 big chances per 90, just under the league average of 39 per cent. While the latter figure has regressed slightly to 37 per cent over the last 17 matches, Forest’s finishing has improved to a league-leading 53 per cent. Morgan Gibbs-White has led that charge, converting six of his nine big chances after a missing four of five in this first 18 games. Since January 1, only Gyokeres (41 per cent) boasts a better shot-to-goal conversion rate than his 29 per cent. Taiwo Awoniyi and Igor Jesus have converted seven of their 11 big chances too, all of which is leading to a much more positive end to the season than some anticipated. Erling Haaland led all players across the first 18 weeks of the season with 32 big chances, more than half of Manchester City’s 60 and 11 more than Crystal Palace's Jean-Philippe Mateta in second. He converted 15 of those. Over the last 17 games, he and his team-mates have been responsible for his big chances dropping to just 15 out of City’s total of 48. That is still the third-most but Haaland has converted just five. Antoine Semenyo and Nico O’Reilly have picked up some of the slack, converting seven of their 12 big chances. Tijjani Reijnders, who converted three of five in the first 18 games, has missed both big chances while seeing his minutes fall from 1,177 to just 322. Savinho, in a tough season with just 606 league minutes under his belt, has misfired the most. He has missed all six of his big chances across the season, including this one in the 0-0 New Year’s Day draw at Sunderland. United have improved in front of goal compared to 2024-25, with their shot accuracy rising from 33 to 37 per cent and conversion rate moving up to 12 per cent from eight. In 2025-26, they have averaged 2.8 big chances per 90 in the first 18 and last 17 games. Their conversion rate has marginally improved from 36 to 38 per cent, but the distribution has changed. Across the first 18 games, Bryan Mbeumo and Bruno Fernandes were the principal recipients of big chances with 11 and nine respectively. They combined to convert nine of those, while Benjamin Sesko scored two of his six. In the last 17 games, Sesko has had 14 big chances and scored six, with both figures only bettered by four players. Casemiro’s threat from set-pieces has seen him receive eight big chances, up from three in the first 18 games, and convert four of those. Arsenal have averaged three big chances per 90 across the season but have seen their conversion rate take a massive jump. Having converted just 32 per cent of their chances in the first 18 games (third worst), the league leaders have converted 39 per cent (fifth best) in the last 17. Gyokeres, who helped Arsenal beat Atletico Madrid on Tuesday with his physicality, has slowly become the finisher they have needed, converting seven of his 13 big chances. Max Dowman, Piero Hincapie, Declan Rice and Eberechi Eze have scored five of five too. Brighton’s creativity has improved as the season has gone on, with their big chances rising from 2.1 per 90 in the first 18 games to 2.5 in the last 17. But having ranked third in conversion rate at 50 per cent in the first half of 2025-26, they rank bottom over the second at just 23 per cent. Danny Welbeck has been consistent, converting five of nine in the first 18 games and five of 11 in the last 17. But Kaoru Mitoma, who played only 562 minutes until late December but has played 1,101 since, has struggled. He has missed each of his last seven big chances. Jack Hinshelwood has scored just two of his eight, notably missing this chance in the 3-0 win over Chelsea worth 0.8xG, making it one of the biggest misses of the season. Bournemouth’s finishing has improved as the season has gone on too. It is partly surprising given they have shot from outside the box more frequently in the last 17 matches (42 per cent of total shots, second-highest behind Forest) than in the first 18 (37 per cent, fourth most). But Bournemouth’s xG per shot has improved from 0.11 to 0.13. Antoine Semenyo received nine of their 38 big chances before his departure, converting four of those. Eli Junior Kroupi matched that return from just five big chances, while Evanilson, Marcus Tavernier (both one of five) and David Brooks (zero of five) struggled. In the last 17 games, they have created 45 chances. Kroupi has continued his hot streak, converting five of seven, while Rayan has converted three of three. Evanilson has scored three of his eight too, though he had the second-biggest miss this season in xG terms in the 2-1 win at Newcastle United. The goals have dried up for Dominic Calvert-Lewin, who scored seven of his eight big chances between November 29 against Manchester City and December 28 against Sunderland. He has converted just four of 16 since then, including a missed penalty against Crystal Palace in March. That has contributed to Leeds’ overall conversion rate dropping from 38 to 33 per cent. But Calvert-Lewin’s fellow summer arrivals Noah Okafor and Lukas Nmecha have stepped up in that time, scoring six of their 10 big chances to edge Leeds closer to safety. After scoring with 19 of 100 shots between January 17 and March 4, Chelsea have scored just one of 94 shots across their current six-match losing streak. Worryingly, they have registered just seven big chances across that spell, managing none in limp defeats to Manchester United and Brighton. Joao Pedro has shone upfront despite the chaos around him, converting 14 of his 25 big chances. Cole Palmer and Enzo Fernandez have converted eight of 13 and six of 14 respectively but have been inconsistent. Liam Delap has missed four of his five big chances, while Alejandro Garnacho has missed seven of eight. Virgil van Dijk leads all defenders for big chances missed with seven (level with Dan Ballard and Jurrien Timber), converting just two of his nine opportunities. Both his goals — against Everton last month and Sunderland in February — have been game-winners, though. Among their forwards, Mohamed Salah’s struggles have seen him convert just four of 15 big chances, having scored with 22 of 46 in 2024-25. Hugo Ekitike started the season by scoring six of his nine but converted just two of 10 before succumbing to a season-ending Achilles injury. Alexander Isak and Florian Wirtz converted just two of their 10 in the first 18 games but have scored with four of their last eight, offering a modicum of hope for next season. !function(){"use strict";window.addEventListener("message",(function(a){if(void 0!==a.data["datawrapper-height"]){var e=document.querySelectorAll("[id='datawrapper-chart-XyCLL']");for(var t in a.data["datawrapper-height"])for(var r=0;r Newcastle have consistently ranked close to the bottom in big chance conversion (33 per cent across the season, 19th) due to the struggles of Nick Woltemade and Yoane Wissa following Isak’s departure. Woltemade began by converting five of his first 11 opportunities but has played just 529 minutes across the last 17 games, receiving zero big chances. Wissa did not play until December but has spurned five of his six big chances, including this one late against Brighton over the weekend. Spurs’ decent first half of the season was built on finishing big chances, low as they were in volume at 1.8 per 90. Their conversion rate of 45 per cent ranked fifth, just behind Thomas Frank’s former team Brentford at 46. Over the last 17 games, their big chances have stayed at 1.8 per 90 but their conversion rate has nosedived to 32 per cent, ranking fifth worst. This Xavi Simons chance against Brighton which came back off the post was worth 0.49xG, making it their biggest miss of the season. Xavi has missed two more big chances too, but Randal Kolo Muani has struggled the most, failing to put away any of his seven big chances. Richarlison has converted seven of his 13 and Brennan Johnson scored both of his before moving to Crystal Palace in January. Fulham overperformed in comparison to their xG in the first 18 games, averaging 1.4 goals per game from 1.1 xG. Their creativity has improved in the last 17 but those numbers have flipped due to their shot accuracy dropping from 32 to 27 per cent and conversion falling from 12 to eight per cent. Marco Silva’s side have scored three penalties but missed nine of their next 10 best chances in terms of xG. Six of those have been saved, with Spurs’ Guglielmo Vicario and Manchester United’s Senne Lammens making great stops to deny Emile Smith Rowe and Joachim Andersen respectively. Raul Jimenez has had a decent season overall, converting seven of 16 big chances. Smith Rowe, after scoring two of his first three, has missed four in a row. Harry Wilson has scored 10 times but just three have come from big chances given his propensity for stunning strikes. Villa are bottom of the league in big chance conversion at just 28 per cent, ranking 19th after 18 games at 31 per cent and staying there over the last 17 at 25 per cent. It has been a precipitous fall-off from 43 per cent in 2022-23, 41 in 2023-24 and 33 in 2024-25. Ollie Watkins has received 27 of Villa’s 75 total big chances and has scored 10 times with several glaring misses. Evann Guessand missed his three before joining Palace in January and scoring his first big chance there, while Amadou Onana has converted just one of his five. Only one of Villa’s five best chances in terms of xG has ended in a goal. This Morgan Rogers miss against Manchester United from Ian Maatsen’s fizzed shot across goal was worth 0.91xG…. … while John McGinn saw this shot against Arsenal — worth 0.87xG —  somehow saved by a sprawling David Raya. Palace were fourth after 18 matches for big chances at 2.8 per 90 but have fallen to 13th since then at 2.3 per 90. Their finishing has remained largely uniform, dropping marginally from 34 to 32 per cent, but that is a sign that they need to do better. Mateta was wasteful early in the season, finishing just six of 21 big chances with some glaring misses. No other Palace player had more than six chances. Mateta’s absence earlier this year due to speculation around his future and injury saw Ismaila Sarr lead the team with nine big chances since returning from the Africa Cup of Nations. He has converted four of those, while January arrival Jorgen Strand Larsen has scored three of his four. West Ham struggled to create in the first half of the season, averaging 1.3 big chances per 90, the second worst rate in the division. They have improved in the subsequent 17 games with 2.4 per 90 placing them in mid-table. Unlike many other teams, their conversion rate has also improved from 33 to 42 per cent. West Ham have scored each of their four biggest chances in terms of xG over the last 17 games. Kostas Mavropanos leads them in conversion percentage, scoring three of his four chances and posing a massive threat from offensive set-pieces, while defending them well too. Taty Castellanos has scored with three of his nine big chances, while Tomas Soucek, Crysencio Summerville and Jarrod Bowen have scored eight of their 16 combined. Sunderland’s model this season has been one of efficiency, especially out of possession. In the final third, the returns have varied, and their big chance record has been close to the bottom across both the first 18 and last 17 games. Regis Le Bris’ side converted 32 per cent of their 1.6 big chances per 90 up to late December and improved to finish 37 per cent of 1.8 big chances per 90 since then. Dan Ballard received six of their 28 big chances initially, scoring just once from them, while Wilson Isidor converted three of five. In the last 17 games, they have targeted Brian Brobbey more often, but he has converted just two of his eight big chances. Enzo Le Fee and Habib Diarra have scored two of three each, while Isidor, Chemsdine Talbi and Eliezer Mayenda have each converted their only chance. Wolves looked certain to go down long before the last 17 games but their finishing during this stretch has certainly not helped. Tolu Arokodare has scored just two of his 10 big chances in this time, while Adam Armstrong, who will help in the Championship, has missed both of his. In the first 18 games, they averaged just one big chance a game but scored seven of them. Jhon Arias, who stayed at Molineux for only half the season before a return to Brazil, missed four big chances during this stretch (though he did convert one in early January). Strand Larsen missed four of five before rediscovering his finishing edge at Selhurst Park. Spot the pattern. Connect the terms Find the hidden link between sports terms