Teachers will 'almost certainly strike' over pay as Iran war hits inflation

Teachers are expected to strike this year over their new pay deal because it will fall well below inflation, it is reported. Inflation is likely to rise sharply due to the war in Iran, yet the pay increase for teachers isn't believed to meet this bump. However, the School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB), the independent pay award body, suggest educators should receive a pay rise slightly above the rate of inflation for the next academic year. It is feared the industrial action, set for later this year, will be "catastrophic" as schools across the UK are already stretched. Headteachers face such bleak conditions that some have even declined the Government's breakfast club offer due to the "financial and logistical" challenges. A Labour source said: "This is going to be catastrophic. Teachers will almost certainly strike over this, and even meeting a below inflation deal they hate is going to mean further pain for schools. If we are trying to do a big reset after the elections, how can we come out and announce this?" Inflation for the coming academic year remains uncertain. The government’s official measure, the Consumer Prices Index (CPI), stood at 3.3% in March but is expected to rise further. The Bank of England recently indicated that CPI could peak at around 3.6% to 3.7% by the end of the year and stay elevated, with a worst-case scenario seeing inflation reach as high as 6.2% next year. The education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, is currently in discussions with Chancellor Rachel Reeves and the Treasury over how to finance the proposed pay award, amid concerns it could force schools to make significant cuts. It is also understood that the pay review body’s recommended three-year deal includes even smaller increases for the subsequent academic years of 2027–28 and 2028–29. Speaking to The Sunday Times , Daniel Kebede, general secretary of the National Union of Teachers (NEU), said: “Unless any pay award is both above inflation and fully funded, it’s hard to see any outcome other than strike action. Schools are already being asked to do more with less — grappling with inadequately funded Send (Special educational needs and disabilities) reforms while trying to meet rising levels of need with shrinking resources.” Unions have suggested that the three-year deal will easily meet the threshold for strikes, while ministers could be forced to make steep cuts to schools’ budgets to cover the rise. The Treasury insists that the Department for Education must fund the pay rise from its own budget. A Treasury official said: "Recommendations for pay awards are made by the independent pay review bodies and, asset out in the spending review, awards will need to be funded by departments."